Week Nine Power Rankings: What you miss can be just as important as what you get right

Maybe this past weekend would have been the most appropriate Sunday yet to break out that Browns sweatshirt. What's that? I didn't even pick Cleveland, you say?

Well, yeah, I didn't. But I also didn't bet heavily against them, either. So when you consider that New England's loss was the only real upset of the week and it was only one of two games I missed last week (the other being a single point I had gone back and forth on before placing on the Colts), the eight points Cleveland cost me on my picks made my final score of 82 points hold up quite nicely.

In many ways, last weekend served as further proof of why I still love the confidence pools far more than any of the fantasy sports, as all participants are required to play with the same pieces but it all comes down to the order they elect to play them in. And maybe there were some other contests that earned me points in this past weekend's games that helped, but ultimately, my first place finish in both confidence pools was thanks in large part to the minimal damage caused by my mere two incorrect predictions.

In the PoolHost league, you'll notice the fellow in second actually finished with a better straight-up picks record than me on the week. However, like most every other entrant, he had double-digits on the Pats. And now upon a second look, I suppose that low-balling Indy was also sort of outside the norm for the week too:

I'm the only person with two first place finishes in that pool so far this year, but unfortunately, I'm still two measly points out of first place in the grand total race:

It was sort of the same story even with the smaller sample size over in the Yahoo pool, as the New England loss definitely hurt me along with one other guy the least. But my straight-up record was the best of the bunch, so that didn't hurt either:

And now after nine weeks and two victories in that confidence pool, I've overtaken the other guy with two first place finishes there by a single point for the lead on the year:

I'm also pleased to say that my 11-2 record for the week was better than any of the "experts" I traditionally track, although it should be noted that Ron Jaworski of the ESPN gang went 10-2 for the week. Of course, 11-2 is better than 10-2, so: Me > Him.

Nobody did all that bad, but right behind me were Jason Cole and Michael Silver of Yahoo, as well as Merrill Hoge, Chris Mortensen, and Mark Schlereth with 10-3 marks. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports went 9-4, as did Mike Golic and Seth Wickersham. And bringing up the rear were Eric Allen, Les Carpenter, and Adam Schefter with 8-5 records.

That makes the overall standings look like this now:

1. (1) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 84-46 (.646)
2. (2) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 83-47 (.638)
2. (2) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 83-47 (.638)
4. (5) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 75-45 (.625) 
5. (6) YOURS TRULY: 81-49 (.623)
6. (4) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 79-51 (.608)
7. (7) Mike Golic, ESPN: 77-53 (.592)
7. (8) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 77-53 (.592)
9. (10) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 72-58 (.554)
9. (9) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 72-58 (.554)
11. (10) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 71-59 (.546)
12. (10) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 70-60 (.538)
13. (13) Eric Allen, ESPN: 64-66 (.492)

And perhaps best of all, I'm now down to five teams being in the negative for overall points earned this year after being at seven last week:

1. (1) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Lost to Chicago, 22-19 (+5)
• Actual Record: 0-8
• My predicted record: 1-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +82
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
• Plus/Minus: +80

2. (2) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 23-20 [OT] (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 2-6
• My predicted record: 1-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-1
• Points scored for me with wins:+1
• Points scored for me with losses: +74
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +69

3. (3) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 34-3 (+12)
• Actual Record: 1-7
• My predicted record: 1-7
• My record at predicting their record: 6-2
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +62
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -8
  
• Plus/Minus: +51

4. (3) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat Arizona, 27-24 [OT] (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 3-5
• My predicted record: 4-4
• My record at predicting their record: 7-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +35
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
• Plus/Minus: +46
  

4. (3) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 27-24 [OT] (+7)
• Actual Record: 3-5
• My predicted record: 2-6
• My record at predicting their record: 7-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
• Points scored for me with losses: +36
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +46

6. (8) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 27-21 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 6-2
• My predicted record: 8-0
• My record at predicting their record: 6-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +47
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -4
• Plus/Minus: +43

7. (7) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat Miami, 26-10 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 6-2
• My predicted record: 7-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +49
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +40

8. (11) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 41-7 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 6-2
• My predicted record: 5-3
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +36
• Points scored for me with losses: +10
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -3
• Plus/Minus: +34
  

9. (13) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 27-21 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 2-6
• My predicted record: 2-6
• My record at predicting their record: 6-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +38
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -12
• Plus/Minus: +32
  

9. (15) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat Dallas, 45-7 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
• My predicted record: 8-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +56
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: -17
  
• Plus/Minus: +32

11. (6) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Lost to Cleveland, 34-14 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 6-2
• My predicted record: 7-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +42
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
• Plus/Minus: +30

12. (9) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 26-24 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 8-0
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +47
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
• Plus/Minus: +28

12. (9) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat Indianapolis, 26-24 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 4-4
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +26
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +28

14. (13) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Beat Kansas City, 23-20 [OT] (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 5-4
• My predicted record: 3-6
• My record at predicting their record: 7-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +11
• Points scored for me with losses: +38
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +25

15. (16) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 23-20 [OT] (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 6-2
• My predicted record: 5-3
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +33
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +3
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +24

16. (12) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 4-4
• My predicted record: 1-7
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +48
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +23
  

17. (16) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Lost to Oakland, 23-20 [OT] (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 2-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
• Points taken from me with wins: -23
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +21

18. (16) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 2-6
• My predicted record: 3-5
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +35
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
  
• Plus/Minus: +18

19. (23) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Beat Carolina, 34-3 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 6-3
• My predicted record: 7-2
• My record at predicting their record: 6-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +48
• Points scored for me with losses: +1
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -24
  
• Plus/Minus: +16
  

20. (20) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 2-6
• My predicted record: 4-4
• My record at predicting their record: 4-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +7
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +27
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -17
  
• Plus/Minus: +14

20. (21) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 29-23 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 4-4
• My predicted record: 5-3
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +19
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: +14
  

20. (23) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 27-21 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 6-2
• My predicted record: 6-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +36
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
  
• Plus/Minus: +14

23. (21) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 5-3
• My record at predicting their record: 4-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +32
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: +12

24. (19) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Beat New England, 34-14 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 3-5
• My predicted record: 3-5
• My record at predicting their record: 4-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
• Points scored for me with losses: +32
• Points taken from me with wins: -21
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +7

25. (23) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 4-4
• My predicted record: 1-7
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins:+8
• Points scored for me with losses: +25
• Points taken from me with wins: -29
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +4

26. (27) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 27-21 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 2-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +6
• Points scored for me with losses: +21
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +3
  

27. (26) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 26-10 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 4-4
• My predicted record: 3-5
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -22
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
  
• Plus/Minus: +2

28. (28) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Beat Buffalo, 22-19 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 6-2
• My record at predicting their record: 3-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +26
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -15
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: -8

29. (30) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 41-7 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 4-4
• My predicted record: 2-4
• My record at predicting their record: 3-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +9
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
• Points taken from me with wins: -29
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
  
• Plus/Minus: -12

30. (29) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat Houston, 29-23 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 4-5
• My predicted record: 8-1
• My record at predicting their record: 5-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +31
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -50
• Plus/Minus: -17
  

31. (32) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 45-7 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 1-7
• My predicted record: 4-4
• My record at predicting their record: 3-5
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +18
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -41
• Plus/Minus: -28

32. (31) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 4-4
• My predicted record: 2-6
• My record at predicting their record: 2-5
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +10
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
• Plus/Minus: -35

Unfortunately, I've got four spots with losing records now as opposed to three last week, but the good news would be that all four are only one game under being even:

16-point games: 2-1
15-point games: 3-0
14-point games: 5-2
13-point games: 7-2
12-point games: 5-4
11-point games: 6-3
10-point games: 7-2
9-point games: 7-2
8-point games: 4-5
7-point games: 6-3
6-point games: 4-5
5-point games: 6-3
4-point games: 4-5
3-point games: 4-5
2-point games: 5-4
1-point games: 6-3