Week 13 Power Rankings: A third time is not a charm

Alas, it appears that my strategy of using "my numbers" to determine my picks for Week 13 finally proved unsuccessful after back-to-back triumphs in the first two attempts. While the San Diego loss to Oakland was indeed a swing that worked in my favor, a number of other upsets around the league (with the most notable and costly being Indianapolis falling to Dallas) did not and I ended up with 104 points for the week.

So does this mean an end to using Week 13 for the numbers experiment in future seasons?

Hardly. This particular NFL season has had more upsets on any given week than the previous two (which probably played havoc with a number of the figures used in my math), and besides, I already swore I'd be following the Week 13 tradition until the logic has a losing record. Right now, it's still 2-1 in three attempts, which ain't half bad.

And if nothing else, at least this happened.

Now, as for how the logic cost me in the actual pools, my total for the week was still good enough for eighth place in the PoolHost league:

The worst part would be that the leader for the year was the top finisher for Week 13, so my deficit has now increased to 24 points:

And then my score was worth a decidedly middle-of-the-pack finish over in the Yahoo league:

Tying with the leader on the year means that I still trail by 31 points:

The most remarkable thing about that fellow in the lead in the Yahoo pool has to be his straight-up record, which to this point is better than anybody in the PoolHost league or any of the usual "experts" I track.

Speaking of which, my 10-6 would've been the worst of that bunch had it not been for Adam Schefter of ESPN finishing 9-7. It was actually Eric Allen and Merrill Hoge posting the best records of the week by each going 14-2. Right behind them were Les Carpenter of Yahoo as well as Mike Golic and Seth Wickersham with 13-3 sets of picks. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Jason Cole, and Mark Schlereth all went 12-4, while Chris Mortensen and Michael Silver each had 11-5 records. Ron Jaworski should be wedged in between those scores with his retarded 11-4 record on the 15 games he picked for.

So technically speaking, Jaws now overtakes the best winning percentage of the year—despite having picked 11 less games than everyone else:

1. (1) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 128-64 (.667)
2. (2) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 118-60 (.663)
3. (3) Mike Golic, ESPN: 122-70 (.635)
4. (3) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 120-72 (.625)
4. (6) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 120-72 (.625) 
6. (3) YOURS TRULY: 119-73 (.620)
7. (8) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 117-75 (.609)
8. (7) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 116-76 (.604)
8. (8) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 116-76 (.604)
10. (10) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 113-79 (.589)
10. (11) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 113-79 (.589)
12. (12) Eric Allen, ESPN: 110-82 (.573)
13. (13) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 104-88 (.542)

The jockeying for last place continues to go back-and-forth in the Power Rankings while the top three remains the same this week:

1. (1) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Lost to Seattle, 31-14 (+14)
• Actual Record: 1-11
• My predicted record: 1-11
• My record at predicting their record: 10-2
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +119
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -8
  
• Plus/Minus: +108

2. (2) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to Chicago, 24-20 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 2-10
• My predicted record: 1-11
• My record at predicting their record: 11-1
• Points scored for me with wins:+1
• Points scored for me with losses: +111
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +106

3. (3) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 38-14 (+10)
• Actual Record: 2-10
• My predicted record: 2-10
• My record at predicting their record: 9-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +107
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
• Plus/Minus: +98

4. (7) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 34-30 (+16)
  
• Actual Record: 2-10
• My predicted record: 3-9
• My record at predicting their record: 9-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +82
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +67

5. (4) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 13-10 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 8-4
• My predicted record: 11-1
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +76
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
• Plus/Minus: +63

5. (5) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Lost to St. Louis, 19-6 (+5)
• Actual Record: 3-9
• My predicted record: 3-9
• My record at predicting their record: 10-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
• Points scored for me with losses: +58
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +63

7. (8) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat Buffalo, 38-14 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 5-7
• My predicted record: 5-7
• My record at predicting their record: 10-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +35
• Points scored for me with losses: +44
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
• Plus/Minus: +60

8. (11) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 34-30 (+16)
  
• Actual Record: 9-3
• My predicted record: 10-2
• My record at predicting their record: 9-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +89
• Points scored for me with losses: +1
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -24
  
• Plus/Minus: +57
  

8. (5) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Lost to New England, 45-3 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 9-3
• My predicted record: 9-3
• My record at predicting their record: 8-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +67
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +3
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -8
  
• Plus/Minus: +57

10. (10) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 28-24 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 10-2
• My predicted record: 10-2
• My record at predicting their record: 8-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +63
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: -4
• Plus/Minus: +52

11. (15) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Beat Denver, 10-6 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 8-4
• My predicted record: 6-6
• My record at predicting their record: 8-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +61
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
• Points taken from me with wins: -23
• Points taken from me with losses: -10
  
• Plus/Minus: +47

12. (13) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Beat Washington, 31-7 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 8-4
• My predicted record: 8-4
• My record at predicting their record: 8-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +56
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -17
• Plus/Minus: +43
  

12. (17) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat San Francisco, 34-16 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 8-4
• My predicted record: 11-1
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +73
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: -23
  
• Plus/Minus: +43

14. (11) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Beat San Diego, 28-13 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 6-6
• My predicted record: 3-9
• My record at predicting their record: 9-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +11
• Points scored for me with losses: +54
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +39

15. (16) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat Houston, 34-24 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 8-4
• My predicted record: 8-4
• My record at predicting their record: 8-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +42
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: +37

16. (21) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 28-24 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 7-5
• My predicted record: 3-9
• My record at predicting their record: 8-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +19
• Points scored for me with losses: +41
• Points taken from me with wins: -25
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +35
  

16. (13) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Beat New York Jets, 45-3 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 10-2
• My predicted record: 9-3
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +59
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -13
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
• Plus/Minus: +35

18. (22) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 34-16 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 4-8
• My predicted record: 7-5
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +16
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +38
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
  
• Plus/Minus: +33

19. (9) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Lost to Dallas, 38-35 [OT] (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 6-6
• My predicted record: 11-1
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +59
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -32
• Plus/Minus: +32

20. (18) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Beat Baltimore, 13-10 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 9-3
• My predicted record: 9-3
• My record at predicting their record: 6-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +63
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -12
• Points taken from me with losses: -24
  
• Plus/Minus: +27

21. (24) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 10-6 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 3-9
• My predicted record: 4-8
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +61
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -16
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
  
• Plus/Minus: +26

22. (26) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Beat Carolina, 31-14 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 6-6
• My predicted record: 3-9
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +23
• Points scored for me with losses: +37
• Points taken from me with wins: -34
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
  
• Plus/Minus: +21

22. (19) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Beat Tennessee, 17-6 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 7-5
• My predicted record: 1-11
• My record at predicting their record: 6-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +61
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -41
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +21
  

24. (19) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Beat Miami, 13-10 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 5-7
• My predicted record: 5-7
• My record at predicting their record: 6-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +40
• Points taken from me with wins: -29
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: +19

24. (23) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 34-24 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 5-7
• My predicted record: 6-6
• My record at predicting their record: 7-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +19
• Points scored for me with losses: +26
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
• Plus/Minus: +19
  

26. (25) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Beat Arizona, 19-6 (+5)
  
• Actual Record: 6-6
• My predicted record: 2-10
• My record at predicting their record: 8-4
• Points scored for me with wins:+13
• Points scored for me with losses: +38
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +14

27. (30) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 24-20 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 9-3
• My predicted record: 8-4
• My record at predicting their record: 5-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +44
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: -1

28. (28) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Lost to Oakland, 28-13 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 6-6
• My predicted record: 10-2
• My record at predicting their record: 6-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +44
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -52
• Plus/Minus: -7
  

29. (27) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Lost to Cleveland, 13-10 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 6-6
• My predicted record: 6-6
• My record at predicting their record: 6-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +18
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: -10

30. (28) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Lost to Jacksonville, 17-6 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 5-7
• My predicted record: 9-3
• My record at predicting their record: 4-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +32
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -36
• Plus/Minus: -11

31. (32) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 31-7 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 5-7
• My predicted record: 3-9
• My record at predicting their record: 4-8
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +26
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -24
• Plus/Minus: -35

32. (31) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Beat Indianapolis, 38-35 [OT] (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 4-8
• My predicted record: 5-7
• My record at predicting their record: 5-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +8
• Points scored for me with losses: +28
• Points taken from me with wins: -31
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -41
• Plus/Minus: -36

Finally, yikes ... five spots now below .500:

16-point games: 5-1
15-point games: 6-0
14-point games: 8-3
13-point games: 11-2
12-point games: 8-5
11-point games: 8-5
10-point games: 10-3
9-point games: 10-3
8-point games: 6-7
7-point games: 8-5
6-point games: 6-7
5-point games: 8-5
4-point games: 6-7
3-point games: 7-6
2-point games: 6-7
1-point games: 6-7