Week 15 Power Rankings: What was I thinking?

I was among the many who had started the week off in the best possible way, but things went downhill on Sunday and I ultimately continued my steadily decreasing points trend by only ending up with 89 points with my picks for the week. Keeping in mind what I said when I came out on top in Week Nine and my point allocation looked brilliant that week, there were multiple spots on my sheet this past weekend that were quite suspect even going into the games and, as expected, cost me some ground.

In the first game on Sunday, I saw the Giants get out to an early lead and mistakenly assumed I had picked Philadelphia in that contest. I was reassuring myself that somebody this season was due to blow a big lead, and sure enough, that's exactly what New York did. And then I realized I had actually picked the G-Men.

And then I found out that Tampa Bay had allowed the Lions to win their first game on the road in more than three years. Most devastatingly, the same Miami Dolphins I had originally picked to go all the way to the AFC Championship this year as a wild card had their playoff hopes end in yet another loss at home, this one to the Buffalo Bills thanks in part to four missed field goals—which once again, seemed to have been the opposite end of the luck that went my way back when I won Week Three.

A Steelers loss later in the afternoon in addition to wins from the Patriots that night and the Bears on Monday that were both worth far more to others than myself ultimately made Week 15 an unmitigated disaster for me.

I suppose I've had worse finishes this year than the 10th place spot I ended up in for the PoolHost league:

And after now my fourth straight week of having a lower total than I did the week before, I've slid into third place on the year:

The story in the Yahoo pool's really gotten quite tired as the same dude won for now the sixth time this year while I basically finished in last out of the people who actually still submit picks:

And now that first place is more or less entirely out of the question in that league, it comes down to a matter of me trying to hang on to the opportunity to get another second place trophy:

I suppose if there was something encouraging to take from this past week, it was that my straight-up record was among the better performances out of the usual group of "experts." Chris Mortensen of ESPN was tops of the bunch at 12-4, while Eric Allen, Merrill Hoge, Adam Schefter, and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports all matched my 11-5 mark. Michael Silver of Yahoo went 10-6 and Seth Wickersham was 9-7, with Ron Jaworski wedged in between those two at 9-6. Mike Golica and Les Carpenter broke even with 8-8 sets of picks, while it was Jason Cole and Mark Schlereth bringing up the rear by both going 7-9.

ESPN also went back and corrected their Vikings-Giants omission from last week, which I will not be going back and correcting. But at least Jaworski aside, everybody's got the same total number of games picked again—although that douche is still in the lead:

1. (1) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 138-70 (.663)
2. (2) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 145-79 (.647) 
3. (5) YOURS TRULY: 142-82 (.634)
4. (6) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 141-83 (.629)
4. (7) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 141-83 (.629)
6. (3) Mike Golic, ESPN: 140-84 (.625)
7. (3) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 139-85 (.621)
8. (9) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 136-88 (.607)
9. (9) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 135-89 (.603)
10. (8) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 134-90 (.598)
11. (11) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 133-91 (.594)
12. (12) Eric Allen, ESPN: 131-93 (.585)
13. (13) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 123-101 (.549)

Week 15 also did sub pretty substantial shaking of the Power Rankings as for the first time since Week Two, there's a cellar-dweller other than the Dallas/Washington trade-off it's seemed like we've been getting that past 14 weeks or whatever:

1. (1) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Beat Arizona, 19-12 (+1)
• Actual Record: 2-12
• My predicted record: 2-12
• My record at predicting their record: 12-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +133
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -8
  
• Plus/Minus: +123

2. (4) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Beat Cleveland, 19-17 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 3-11
• My predicted record: 4-10
• My record at predicting their record: 11-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +98
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +87

3. (3) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 23-20 [OT] (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 4-10
• My predicted record: 1-13
• My record at predicting their record: 11-3
• Points scored for me with wins:+1
• Points scored for me with losses: +111
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -31
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +81

3. (2) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Beat Miami, 17-14 (-15)
• Actual Record: 4-10
• My predicted record: 2-12
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +107
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
• Plus/Minus: +81

5. (8) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 34-18 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 12-2
• My predicted record: 12-2
• My record at predicting their record: 10-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +88
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: -4
• Plus/Minus: +77

6. (7) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Lost to Chicago, 40-14 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 5-9
• My predicted record: 5-9
• My record at predicting their record: 12-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +35
• Points scored for me with losses: +59
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
• Plus/Minus: +75

7. (5) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat New Orleans, 30-24 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 10-4
• My predicted record: 12-2
• My record at predicting their record: 8-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +86
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
• Plus/Minus: +71

8. (6) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 30-24 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 10-4
• My predicted record: 12-2
• My record at predicting their record: 10-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +104
• Points scored for me with losses: +1
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -26
  
• Plus/Minus: +70
  

9. (9) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 27-13 (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 9-5
• My predicted record: 7-7
• My record at predicting their record: 10-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +67
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +30
• Points taken from me with wins: -23
• Points taken from me with losses: -10
  
• Plus/Minus: +64

10. (13) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Beat Denver, 39-23 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 7-7
• My predicted record: 4-10
• My record at predicting their record: 11-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +60
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +59

11. (10) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Lost to Carolina, 19-12 (+1)
• Actual Record: 4-10
• My predicted record: 3-11
• My record at predicting their record: 11-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
• Points scored for me with losses: +59
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +56

12. (17) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 34-7 (+16)
  
• Actual Record: 5-9
• My predicted record: 8-6
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +20
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +54
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
  
• Plus/Minus: +53

13. (16) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Beat Green Bay, 31-27 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 12-2
• My predicted record: 11-3
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +71
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -13
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
• Plus/Minus: +47

14. (19) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 34-24 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 8-6
• My predicted record: 13-1
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +72
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -32
• Plus/Minus: +45

14. (11) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 38-31 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 9-5
• My predicted record: 10-4
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +63
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -22
• Plus/Minus: +45
  

16. (12) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat New York Giants, 38-31 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 10-4
• My predicted record: 9-5
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +51
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: +41

17. (20) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Lost to New England, 31-27 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 8-6
• My predicted record: 12-2
• My record at predicting their record: 8-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +73
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
• Points taken from me with losses: -36
  
• Plus/Minus: +37

17. (23) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 34-24 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 8-6
• My predicted record: 2-12
• My record at predicting their record: 8-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +7
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +71
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -41
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +37
  

19. (24) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 34-18 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 6-8
• My predicted record: 3-11
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +23
• Points scored for me with losses: +52
• Points taken from me with wins: -34
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
  
• Plus/Minus: +36

20. (21) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 27-13 (+6)
  
• Actual Record: 6-8
• My predicted record: 2-12
• My record at predicting their record: 10-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +13
• Points scored for me with losses: +59
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +35

21. (21) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 31-17 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 5-9
• My predicted record: 6-8
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +19
• Points scored for me with losses: +39
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
• Plus/Minus: +32
  

21. (13) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 22-17 (-13)
  
• Actual Record: 10-4
• My predicted record: 10-4
• My record at predicting their record: 8-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +67
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +3
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -18
• Points taken from me with losses: -20
  
• Plus/Minus: +32

21. (25) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Oakland, 39-23 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 3-11
• My predicted record: 5-9
• My record at predicting their record: 8-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +75
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -16
• Points taken from me with losses: -29
  
• Plus/Minus: +32

24. (15) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 22-17 (-13)
  
• Actual Record: 10-4
• My predicted record: 11-3
• My record at predicting their record: 7-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +79
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -12
• Points taken from me with losses: -37
  
• Plus/Minus: +30

25. (18) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to Detroit, 23-20 [OT] (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 8-6
• My predicted record: 5-9
• My record at predicting their record: 9-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +20
• Points scored for me with losses: +41
• Points taken from me with wins: -25
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -12
• Plus/Minus: +24
  

26. (26) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 19-17 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 5-9
• My predicted record: 6-8
• My record at predicting their record: 7-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +44
• Points taken from me with wins: -29
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
• Plus/Minus: +21

27. (27) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat San Francisco, 34-7 (+16)
  
• Actual Record: 8-6
• My predicted record: 12-2
• My record at predicting their record: 8-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +71
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -52
• Plus/Minus: +20
  

28. (27) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Beat Minnesota, 40-14 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 10-4
• My predicted record: 9-5
• My record at predicting their record: 7-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +52
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: +12

29. (29) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Beat Houston, 31-17 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 6-8
• My predicted record: 10-4
• My record at predicting their record: 6-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +35
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -36
• Plus/Minus: -5

30. (31) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Beat Washington, 33-30 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 5-9
• My predicted record: 6-8
• My record at predicting their record: 7-7
• Points scored for me with wins: +17
• Points scored for me with losses: +37
• Points taken from me with wins: -31
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -41
• Plus/Minus: -18

31. (32) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Lost to Dallas, 33-30 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 5-9
• My predicted record: 3-11
• My record at predicting their record: 5-9
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +36
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -37
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -24
• Plus/Minus: -25

32. (30) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 17-14 (-15)
  
• Actual Record: 7-7
• My predicted record: 7-7
• My record at predicting their record: 6-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +18
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -38
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -29
  
• Plus/Minus: -37

Finally, I've once again seen the possibility of going perfect for the year in one spot—albeit one in which I didn't have to pick for half the year, unlike last season in which there was always a 12-point game—disappear late in the season. So thanks a lot, Miami. You don't deserve the playoffs:

16-point games: 7-1
15-point games: 7-1
14-point games: 10-3
13-point games: 11-4
12-point games: 8-7
11-point games: 10-5
10-point games: 12-3
9-point games: 12-3
8-point games: 7-8
7-point games: 10-5
6-point games: 8-7
5-point games: 9-6
4-point games: 8-7
3-point games: 9-6
2-point games: 6-9
1-point games: 8-7