Week 13 Picks: Keeping the tradition alive

I tried explaining that line of numbers that appears under each one of my picks every week way back in Week Nine of the 2008 season, but I don't think the explanation was quite as clear as it could have been. So hopefully the little graphic to the left here, based upon the most recent Power Rankings, is somewhat more helpful in explaining how "the numbers" work for me.

It's relevant this week because Week 13 has officially become the one time of the season in which I crunch my numbers and go with with whatever they say, regardless of what my gut might be telling me. The result was first-place finishes in both 2008 and 2009.

So I'm including tonight's matchup for my example of how this formula works.


The numbers in green for the teams individually in those top two frames denote what they've earned me when picked to win. The numbers in red denote what they've earned me when picked to lose.

Thus, in the formula line for the third image at the bottom, combining Philadelphia's points earned when picked to win with Houston's points earned when picked to lose, and the total is +38 (green arrows). Conversely,the Eagles' earnings when picked to lose plus the Texans' when picked to win is +10 (red arrows). And thus, that largest number in the middle is the difference between the two scenarios (and what I end using to order the picks), which in this case would be 28.

Now like I said, since these numbers will not be changing anytime before Sunday, I'm posting all my picks now. I'll post the other usual hypothetical sheets (sans "my numbers," obviously) later this weekend, I'm sure.

16 points

New Orleans Saints (8-3) over Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)

+49/-8 : +111/130/-19 : -11/+62

15 points

Chicago Bears (8-3) over Detroit Lions (2-9)

+10/-26 : +100/125/-25 : +1/+90

14 points

Seattle Seahawks (5-6) over Carolina Panthers (1-10)

+4/+3 : +106/111/-5 : -8/+102

13 points

Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) over Denver Broncos (3-8)

+38/-4 : +70/93/-23 : -19/+32

12 points

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) over Dallas Cowboys (3-8)

+39/+5 : +48/76/-28 : -33/+9

11 points
Green Bay Packers (7-4) over San Francisco 49ers (4-7)
+39/-7 : +63/72/-9 : -2/+24

10 points
Minnesota Vikings (4-7) over Buffalo Bills (2-9)

+11/+39 : +99/60/+39 : 0/+88

9 points
Atlanta Falcons (9-2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)

+50/-7 : +57/45/+12 : +19/+7

8 points
Miami Dolphins (6-5) over Cleveland Browns (4-7)
+12/-14 : +31/37/-6 : +8/+19

7 points
New York Giants (7-4) over Washington Redskins (5-6)

+32/+4 : +14/34/-20 : -24/-18

6 points
Tennessee Titans (5-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
+2/-7 : +28/34/-6 : +1/+26

5 points

St. Louis Rams (5-6) over Arizona Cardinals (3-8)

+8/+1 : +50/33/+17 : +16/+42

4 points

Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) over Houston Texans (5-6)

+24/+9 : +38/28/+10 : +1/+14

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

+70/-4 : +61/26/+35 : +39/-9

2 points 

San Diego Chargers (6-5) over Oakland Raiders (5-6)

-6/+1 : +24/12/+12 : +11/+30

1 point

New York Jets (9-2) over New England Patriots (9-2)

+60/-2 : +48/2/+46 : +48/-12

I feel I should note that this marks the third straight year it's the Monday Night Football contest that's my single-point game when I do this little experiment. Worked out well the first two times.