Divisional Playoff Picks: Let's not get ahead of ourselves

There's already two divisional rivalry rubber matches set for this weekend over in the AFC, but around where I live in the Chicago area, many people are already giddy at the prospect of the Bears hosting an NFC Championship game against their longtime rival Packers next weekend. So while the Seahawks aren't nearly the moneymaker for local brokers that Green Bay would be, the games still have to be played and there's two teams that have alternate plans for what indeed would probably be a record television audience for next weekend if the Bears were to host the Packers.

To this Bears fan, there's been a little too much talk about that possibility. It's the not first time this scenario could play out that way, and it sort of leads me to believe that the amount of speculation about that NFC Championship game might make nice bulletin board material in the locker rooms of both the Seattle and Atlanta clubhouses.

The Chicago Tribune today ran a feature comparing this year's Bears team to the 2006 team that made it all the way to Super Bowl XLI. It's a little hard for me to believe that I was still in the first year of blogging here on BMC the last time Chicago was in the playoffs, and I apparently hadn't gotten into the predictions business as heavily and regularly as I've done in recent years. As best as I can tell, I didn't even talk about my Bears until they'd clinched that Super Bowl appearance. And then my couple posts probably jinxed them.

So forgive me for being a little more hesitant about buying too heavily into this Bears-Packers hype, since I seem to think that all the talk about it is only going to mean that next week's matchup will involve one, if not two, different teams. The divisional playoffs come first and just like 2006, let's concentrate on the possible joy involved in beating the Seahawks.

Whereas last week we looked at what my predicted records would have been for all 32 teams had they done what I said, just like I did last year, we'll use this round to see what records I myself had for predicting each team this year. At least this year, some of those playoff teams in bold get the parenthetical record with the extra pick in green for actually getting some right:

Carolina Panthers 14-2
Minnesota Vikings 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 12-4
Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
Detroit Lions 12-4
Oakland Raiders 12-4 
Indianapolis Colts 11-5 (12-5) 
Kansas City Chiefs 11-5 (12-5) 
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
New England Patriots 11-5
Buffalo Bills 11-5
New York Giants 11-5
San Francisco 49ers 11-5
St. Louis Rams 11-5 
Baltimore Ravens 10-6 (11-6) 
Green Bay Packers 10-6 (11-6) 
New York Jets 10-6 (11-6)
Houston Texans 10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6 
New Orleans Saints 10-6 (10-7) 
Seattle Seahawks 10-6 (10-7) 
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 (10-7) 
Chicago Bears 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cleveland Browns 9-7
Denver Broncos 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7
San Diego Chargers 9-7
Tennessee Titans 8-8
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Dallas Cowboys 7-9
Washington Redskins 6-10

The regular season might have been a little bit of a drop from the previous year, but last week's first round of postseason picks was most certainly an improvement. And as I mentioned before, this ranking the picks for the confidence pools is something new as well—as evidenced by the fact that only seven people did it last week. Still, when all was said and done, my own picks were worth the most:

And that kept me in third for the season's online progressive standings:

Over in the Yahoo pool where the games carried more weight, I came out in a tie for the top spot there:

Those picks kept me in second for the year in that league:

And actually, my picks held up pretty well in comparison to the the rest of the experts I track as I was matched by only ESPN's Eric Allen and Adam Schefter (who were the regular season's two worst finishers, for the record):

1. Eric Allen, ESPN: 3-1

1. Adam Schefter, ESPN: 3-1 

1. YOURS TRULY: 3-1 

4. Brian Burke, The Fifth Down: 2-2

4. Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 2-2

4. Jason Cole, Yahoo: 2-2

4. Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 2-2

4. Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 2-2

4. Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 2-2

4. Pro Football Weekly Editors: 2-2

4. Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 2-2

4. Michael Silver, Yahoo: 2-2

4. Wunderdog: 2-2

14. Mike Golic, ESPN: 1-3

14. Merrill Hoge, ESPN: 1-3

14. Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 1-3

14. Yahoo Users: 1-3

So everybody got at least one right and at least one wrong. Now here's what everybody's got going into this weekend:

PFW Spread	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	Brian Burke	My Numbers
4 (9 ½)	4 (89%)	4 (26-16)	4 (.80)	4 (57)
3 (8 ½)	3 (83%)	3 (27-18)	3 (.73)	3 (54)
2 (3)	2 (68%)	2 (21-17)	2 (.71)	2 (31)
1 (1 ½)	1 (52%)	1 (23-23)	1 (.68)	1 (29)
7 points (3-1)	5 points (2-2)	7 points (3-1)	8 points (3-1)	3 points (1-3)

And here's how the rest of the experts at Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS Sports who don't rank their picks have them lined up, in order of the schedule:

Les Carpenter, Yahoo
Jason Cole, Yahoo
Michael Silver, Yahoo
Eric Allen, ESPN
Mike Golic, ESPN
Merrill Hoge, ESPN
Ron Jaworski, ESPN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN
Adam Schefter, ESPN
Mark Schlereth, ESPN
Seth Wickersham, ESPN
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

So the only team not receiving a vote this week is that preseason much-hyped Jets squad. Will I be willing to change that? (NOTE: "Points" earned in playoff games are not factored into the Power Rankings number lines since the two pools I'm in use different weights):

4 points

Chicago Bears (11-5) over Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

+34/-15 : +57/54/+3 : +18/+23

Oh, sure. I'm more than a little nervous about the Bears coming into Soldier Field and choking this one away, but my hometown team has been nothing else if not the luckiest team in the league this year. And while the Seahawks played out of their freaking minds last week to stun last year's Super Bowl winners in the opening weekend, this Chicago team is much better than the group the Seahawks beat way back in Week Six of the NFL season. Back then, the Bears weren't mixing in the run near as often as they have since their bye week and more importantly, the Chicago defense didn't have Lance Briggs. So now a very healthy, very rested Bears team should be able to take care of a Seattle squad that, while playing with nothing to lose, will have to take some comfort in just having got this far.

3 points
New England Patriots (14-2) over New York Jets (12-5)
+86/-13 : +72/31/+41 : +54/-14

I've still got the feeling that the Patriots are going to slip up somewhere along the way, but I can't bring myself to pick that to happen this week. A matchup with the Jets gives Bill Belichick a real fine opportunity to stick it to tough-talking Rex Ryan on a big stage. Considering what an ass-whooping New England put upon New York the last time these two met, I'm inclined to believe the Jets will keep this one a bit closer. But even then I can't believe that they'll be able to come out on top. In order to be victorious, they'd have to get Tom Brady to make more than a few mistakes, which is something that the Patriots QB has not done this season, as evidenced by the 36 touchdowns to only four interceptions he threw this past season. You have to go back to Week Six to find Brady's last pick, and even then in a game in which he threw two of them, New England still came out victorious.

2 points
Atlanta Falcons (13-3) over Green Bay Packers (11-6)
+97/-7 : +97/57/+40 : +47/0

The Falcons finished the year with the best record in the NFC, and somehow find themselves being pretty much dismissed as pretenders (look at everyone else's picks above). I can understand and appreciate that the Packers are a dangerous team, but I expect Atlanta to thrive not only on playing in the Georgia Dome but the lack of respect as well. This is, of course, not Matt Ryan's nor Aaron Rodgers' first go in the playoffs, so those two have already put those types of jitters behind them. But Ryan's record in the dome speaks for itself and his development over the past few seasons—including his ability to come from behind, as he's led 13 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter since 2008—leads me to believe that as long as the well-balanced Falcons can keep it close for three quarters, their quarterback can lead them to victory in the end.

1 point
Baltimore Ravens (13-4) over Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
+103/-6 : +91/29/+62 : +68/-12

I don't want to read too much into Baltimore's decisive win over a Chiefs team last weekend that was in apparent disarray on their sideline, but aside from the fact that I picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year, the team's come together at the right time. And I'm thinking that if any team that's coming into this weekend with a little more momentum from having played last week, it would be Baltimore. With another gritty divisional battle in the AFC, I expect this contest to be the closer of the two games in that conference. The Ravens won in Pittsburgh earlier this season, although that was when the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger. Of course, maybe you remember how Big Ben looked after the last time Baltimore's defense was hitting him. Yeah, I know. Roethlisberger put up big numbers over his last two games. But when you consider those were against the Panthers and the Browns, it's not quite as impressive.