Wild Card Picks: See, toldja the Saints would be the No. 5

We've entered the playoffs in the NFL, and I intend to follow the same schedule of reflections I did last postseason—not that I ended up doing all that hot when all was said and done last year, of course.

Anyway, looking back on how I did with my predictions before the season kicked off, I did far worse this year than last at having teams correctly slotted in their actual finishes. This season I had less than a quarter of the teams in their final spots, only getting seven of the 32 teams correct (AFC East: 2/4, AFC North: 0/4, AFC South: 1/4, AFC West: 1/4, NFC East: 1/4, NFC North: 0/4, NFC South: 2/4, NFC West: 0/4).

Yikes.

And this year, I only had six of the dozen teams that actually made the playoffs, with the Saints being the only team I had correctly seeded. So, Nostradamus I am not. Still, that won't stop me from forging ahead with more predictions, obviously.

For this Wild Card round, we'll ignore what I said at the beginning of the year to look back on that "My predicted record" for each team accumulated over the year as my opinion might have changed and imagine how the NFL standings would have looked had my predictions gone flawlessly with every team doing exactly as I had predicted every week during the season:

AFC East
New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 11-5
Miami Dolphins 8-8
Buffalo Bills 2-14

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 14-2
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3
Cleveland Browns 6-10
Cincinnati Bengals 4-12

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 15-1
Tennessee Titans 10-6
Houston Texans 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

AFC West
San Diego Chargers 14-2
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
Denver Broncos 5-11
Oakland Raiders 4-12

NFC East
New York Giants 11-5
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 7-9
Washington Redskins 3-13

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 14-2
Chicago Bears 10-6
Minnesota Vikings 5-11
Detroit Lions 2-14

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 14-2
New Orleans Saints 13-3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10
Carolina Panthers 2-14

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 9-7
St. Louis Rams 4-12
Arizona Cardinals 3-13
Seattle Seahawks 3-13

OK, now as I hinted at in the most recent Power Rankings post, both the PoolHost league and Yahoo league are continuing on with making and ranking playoff picks. However, the PoolHost scores similar to, say, Wunderdog's picks, which are ordered in point values 4 to 1. My Yahoo league is scoring it by increments of four, however, making the most valuable pick worth 16 points, then 12, then 8, and finally 4. I don't know which I really prefer, but I suppose this is an excellent point to note that I did not factor in the straight-up records of the sites I normally include in my picks posts during the year with the "experts" I tracked and documented in the usual Power Rankings wrap-ups of the weekend. Maybe next year (although Brian Burke doesn't usually start posting numbers until a few weeks into the season). For the sake of this table and the remainder of the playoffs, I'm just going to order it 4 to 1 though.

Anyway, here's the usual "hypothetical sheets," which we can order (NOTE: The Saints-Seahawks line was not ready when Pro Football weekly originally published their picks, so I'm using a later column that noted the record spread in favor of the road team. And the Yahoo User picks are based upon users in that confidence pool, so that link below the icon takes you to a screengrab. [UPDATE: Previously posted Yahoo picks were based upon just confidence picks, but new numbers (as of 11:00 A.M. CST on Sunday) reflect picks without confidence or spreads factored in, as inidicated in new screengrab in link):

PFW Spread	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	Brian Burke	My Numbers
4 (10 ½)	4 (95%)	4 (27-18)	4 (.59)	4 (82)
3 (3)	3 (83%)	3 (22-19)	3 (.56)	3 (57)
1.5 (2 ½)	2 (77%)	2 (23-21)	2 (.55)	2 (38)
1.5 (2 ½)	1 (51%)	1 (23-23)	1 (.51)	1 (14)
3 points (2-2)	3 points (1-3)	4 points (2-2)	3 points (2-2)	6 points (3-1)

With the usual experts from Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS Sports, their picks are not ordered, so I'm just presenting those in the order in which the games will be played this weekend. I'm also working under the assumption that bro-in-law will post his own picks at some point before this weekend (UPDATE: Not happening, apparently.):

Les Carpenter, Yahoo
Jason Cole, Yahoo
Michael Silver, Yahoo
Eric Allen, ESPN
Mike Golic, ESPN
Merrill Hoge, ESPN
Ron Jaworski, ESPN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN
Adam Schefter, ESPN
Mark Schlereth, ESPN
Seth Wickersham, ESPN
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

Once again, every team has at least one vote. Even Seattle! Thank you, Eric Allen!

Actually, that should make me a little nervous, seeing as Mr. Allen was the guy who had the best record of anybody last year in playoff prognostications. But like I said, I'll be ordering my own picks using the 4 to 1 scoring, whatever difference that really makes. Anyway, here's what I've got:

4 points

New Orleans Saints (11-5) over Seattle Seahawks (7-9)

+66/-11 : +89/82/+7 : +18/+23

Good luck finding a worse team to ever make the playoffs than this year's Seahawks. Nate Silver had to expand his search to the other three major sports and still only came up with one. I know Seattle's home crowd will be wild and raucous, but then Drew Brees will quickly light up the Seahawks secondary and with or without Chris Ivory, I don't see the Saints' title defense ending in the first round against the league's first sub-.500 division winner.

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (12-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
+103/-6 : +110/57/+53 : +59/+7

I'm willing to admit that the Ravens oft-celebrated defense is not what it used to be, but I'm also willing to say that since Kansas City's offense through the air centers around one of two receivers, Ed Reed should be able to effectively eliminate Dwayne Bowe. Baltimore won't blow the Chiefs out, but they won't need to either. Could be a game of field position, and Billy Cundiff hasn't missed a field goal for the Ravens since Week Nine.

2 points
Green Bay Packers (10-6) over Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
+47/0 : +51/38/+13 : +13/+4

As amazing a story and viewing spectacle as Michael Vick has been this season, he's been sort of figured out ever since the Eagles lost in Chicago. The reborn Philly QB doesn't respond very well to blitzes and you best believe Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers has seen what worked for the Bears and Vikings in recent weeks (and what cost the Giants). The Packers don't have a good running game (three active fullbacks?), but considering the combination of how suspect the Eagles secondary is and Aaron Rodgers' deep threat ability, it's not going to be a factor in this one.

1 point
New York Jets (11-5) over Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
+54/-14 : +59/14/+45 : +59/+5

Speaking of blitzes ... Despite my belief in the Super Bowl Slump suffered by runners-up in previous seasons, I still picked the Colts to win 15 games this year. I'm going with them to be ousted in the first round here because as admirable as an accomplishment as it was for Indy to get into this postseason despite all the injuries they suffered, I don't think the Jets will need to blitz Peyton Manning all that often when they've got solid enough corners to contain the Colts' best receivers. I have some concern about Mark Sanchez's composure, but considering that Indy themselves are not a very blitz-happy team, he shouldn't see too much pressure in this one.