Conference Championship Picks: Cookie Cutters

It's possible I'd heard about it previously this year, but it didn't really register for me until this week that the NFL had redesigned a few logos this season—most notably, the trophies it awards for the Conference Championships about to be played. Perhaps it's just because I'm a cynical bastard, but the new designs resemble something more along the lines of what I'd see used to make Christmas cookies.

But the "cookie cutter" reference seems appropriate this week with the two early line favorites being popular consensus among most of the experts I track, and worst of all, being the exact same pick that Sports Illustrated scribe and Brett Favre ass-licking society president Peter King had forecast at the very beginning of the season. So if I'm pulling for any of the other three possible scenarios for any reason aside from my obvious fandom hoping for one of the two which would include the hometown Bears, it's to deny that tubby retard the joy of saying, "I toldja so." (We can always remind him that he also had Carolina as a Wild Card team.)

I'm perfectly happy to admit how wrong I was about my own predictions for this NFL season—more specifically the beloved Bears, since the team is now but one win away from another Super Bowl appearance. This year's team has completely defied many people's (myself included) ideas of what the team could achieve, and in what has been essentially an unpredictable season for the NFL, nothing could seem more appropriate than having the most popular prediction be completely wrong.

And keeping that in mind, as I did last year, here's a look back at how my pre-season predictions about the playoffs actually turned out:

Wild Card Playoffs
#6 Dolphins over #3 Chargers

#5 Bengals over #4 Patriots

#6 Giants over #3 Cowboys

#5 Saints over #4 49ers

Divisional Playoffs
#6 Dolphins over #1 Colts

#2 Ravens over #5 Bengals

#6 Giants over #1 Packers

#2 Falcons over #5 Saints

Conference Championship
#2 Ravens over #6 Dolphins

#6 Giants over #2 Falcons

Super Bowl XLV
Ravens over Giants

Yep, not a single spot right there. That's some talent, folks.

I'm changing the order of my confidence pool presentation, however, since one league is still very active and the other appears to be dwindling (since the offline structure did, in fact, end at the conclusion of the regular season). That said, last week's poor showing from myself had me finishing second to last for the week in the Yahoo pool:

Worse yet, that guy with the perfect score was right behind me in the standings, and now moves up to within four mere points of catching me:

Like I said, the PoolHost league's participation is only for shits & giggles at this point, so I finished fifth out of the six people who still submitted picks last week:

Although for whatever it's worth, the online standings now have me in second place:

After a strong opening to the playoffs, my picks last week were a lackluster 1-3. What's emerged after two weeks is a basic clusterfuck with the top score being one game above even and the worst score being one game under:

1. (4) Brian Burke, The Fifth Down: 5-3
1. (4) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 5-3
1. (4) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 5-3
1. (4) Pro Football Weekly Editors: 5-3
1. (1) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 5-3
1. (4) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 5-3
1. (4) Wunderdog: 5-3
8. (4) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 4-4
8. (4) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 4-4
8. (14) Mike Golic, ESPN: 4-4
8. (4) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 4-4 
8. (1) YOURS TRULY: 4-4
13. (1) Eric Allen, ESPN: 3-5
13. (14) Merrill Hoge, ESPN: 3-5
13. (4) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 3-5
13. (14) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 3-5
13. (14) Yahoo Users: 3-5

Here's how the board for the usual ranked picks breaks down this weekend:

PFW Spread	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	Brian Burke	My Numbers
1.5 (3)	2 (76%)	2 (21-17)	2 (.74)	2 (12)
1.5 (3)	1 (68%)	1 (23-20)	1 (.64)	1 (2)
0 points (0-0)	0 points (0-0)	0 points (0-0)	0 points (0-0)	0 points (0-0)

The experts at Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS Sports have their Super Bowls shaping up with these helmets:

Les Carpenter, Yahoo
Jason Cole, Yahoo
Michael Silver, Yahoo
Eric Allen, ESPN
Mike Golic, ESPN
Merrill Hoge, ESPN
Ron Jaworski, ESPN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN
Adam Schefter, ESPN
Mark Schlereth, ESPN
Seth Wickersham, ESPN
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

Now that I'm in the last week of using ranking the picks, I do wonder how things would have changed for my Power Rankings had I incorporated either of those scoring structures. I'll elaborate at the conclusion of the season, but I think the Yahoo 16-point maximum method is more fun since it can obviously still swing the standings. And had I used that point-system, then the NFC matchup's difference would not have changed, while the AFC would be dead even. But to maintain consistency for now, the numbers presented are still based on what was accumulated during the regular season. Whether I change it or not next year might well depend on how successful I am this weekend:

2 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4) over New York Jets (13-5)
+68/-12 : +54/12/+42 : +54/-14

I originally leaned toward the Jets, based mostly upon the  incredibly crazy finishes they had during the regular season and some of the additional drama they've had already in tehse playoffs. But then I started to think that the Steelers were going to have a hard time losing to this New York team on their own field twice in the same season. And initially, I was so torn that I made this my lower bet of the week. But seeing as Pittsburgh is the popular favorite right now for the game, it makes more sense to me to place my maximum bet for the week on this one, since in my other game I'll be having ...

1 point

Chicago Bears (12-5) over Green Bay Packers (12-6)

+34/-15 : +34/2/+32 : +47/0

It might be heart winning out over my head, but the game still strikes me as just meaning too much more to Lovie Smith than it does to Mike McCarthy. When Smith first took the Bears job, beating the Packers was one of his stated top priorities. Now with the rare opportunity to not only defeat Green Bay again, but to use such a victory to get into the Super Bowl, I have to believe that a win here basically means Lovie can coach the Bears for as long as he wants. Conversely, a loss may very well lead to the calls for his head again (not that those comments would mean anything, but ...). I don't see Aaron Rodgers duplicating the out-of-his-mind performance he had last weekend in Atlanta, and I can only be encouraged by the fact that this game's at Soldier Field with Terry McAulay—he of the franchise record 18 penalties against the Packers fame—refereeing the contest.