Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Division Series Predictions

Now that they finally figured out which mediocre team would do the AL Central proud and give the Yankees a feeble first-round foe, I should make a quick note of how my predictions from the beginning of the season actually panned out. And emphasis here on the quick, because neither of my predicted pennant-winning teams has made the post-season.

Indeed, I once again managed to correctly name only two of the six division winners—the American League and the National League West. I did have four of the eight playoff teams, but like I said, my original World Series prediction for this season became an impossibility months ago.

As far as how many teams finished where I expected, I got a mere 3 out of 14 right in the American League (2/5 in the AL East, 0/5 in the AL Central, and 1/4 in the AL West), while going 5 for 16 in the National League (2/5 in the NL East, 1/6 in the NL Central, and 2/5 in the NL West). So out of 30 teams in Major League Baseball, I correctly predicted the finishes for a little over a quarter of the league—which is about as good as not having submitted any picks at all.

As for the playoffs, I'll change things up a bit this year by doing what I've done for every other sport and compare my predictions to the experts over at ESPN, CBS Sports and Yahoo. Considering the relatively small amount of teams and rounds, I'm not exactly certain one person will reign supreme, but more for the sake of comparison.

Anyway, on to my first-round playoff picks which are, as always, presented in descending order of confidence:



New York Yankees over Minnesota Twins in three games



It's a nice thought, a prolonged farewell to that hideous home known as the Metrodome, but fans of the Twinkies will have to be content with the memories they already have. The banged-up Minnesota squad has already endured more than a week's worth of must-win games just to catch the floundering Tigers, but this series will likely be a quick handing of their ass back to them before beginning play at Target Field next year. Only 187 days away!





St. Louis Cardinals over Los Angeles Dodgers in four games




I'm throwing the Dodgers a game out of pity here, but I'd lean more towards the Cards sweeping L.A. than the series actually going the full five games. As has been said many times over, St. Louis owns the most formidable one-two punch of any rotation in the playoffs while the Dodgers rotation is a bit shaky. And that's not to mention a Los Angeles offense that hasn't just struggled in the second-half of the season, but more notably this past final week when it took them until their final series to lock up a division title many thought they would be the first to clinch.





Colorado Rockies over Philadelphia Phillies in four games




You have good reason to be nervous about Brad Lidge again, and no matter how good Philadelphia's lineup looks on paper (make no mistake, it does look pretty good), Colorado's had enough momentum to probably earn a split at Citizens Bank before going back to Coors Field to close it out. The remarkable turnaround under Jim Tracy has all sorts of shades of Jack McKeon.



Los Angeles Angels over Boston Red Sox in five games





This is the year the Angels finally get over the Beantown hump. Boston has broken the hearts of fans in Anaheim "Los Angeles" many years over, but Mike Scioscia has a team that's ready to get on base and start running against a Red Sox team that isn't going to be able to throw them out. I'm guessing splits for both the first and the second pair of games before the Angels finally send the hometown into a frenzy with a climactic Game Five victory.

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