Week Four Picks

While I made a few changes from the picks suggested by the numbers last week, both the suggested list and my actual picks were 12-4. However, had I gone by the suggested list, I would've earned 106 points instead of the 114 I actually earned. Now keeping that in mind, here's how the numbers would suggest I order the picks this week:

• 14—Giants over Chiefs
  
• 13—49ers over Rams
  
• 12—Bears over Lions
• 11—Bengals over Browns
  
• 10—Redskins over Bucs
  
• 9—Vikings over Packers
  
• 8—Chargers over Steelers
  
• 7—Colts over Seahawks
  
• 6—Ravens over Patriots
  
• 5—Saints over Jets
  
• 4—Jaguars over Titans
  
• 3—Texans over Raiders
  
• 2—Cowboys over Broncos
  
• 1—Dolphins over Bills
  

Again, not a terrible list of suggestions, but I saw two picks right away that I'm not agreeing with. So here's how I'll actually be voting this week:

14 points
New York Giants (3-0) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
+27/0 : +56/56/0 : 0/+29

Yeah, no arguing with the numbers on this one.

13 points
Indianapolis Colts (3-0) over Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
+21/0 : +30/19/+11 : +11/+9

Peyton Manning is probably not the best opponent for the league's 26th-ranked pass defense.

12 points
Chicago Bears (2-1) over Detroit Lions (1-2)
+8/-9 : +29/38/-9 : 0/+21

It's gonna' take more than a victory over the Redskins to sell me on picking the Lions this year.

11 points
San Francisco 49ers (2-1) over St. Louis Rams (0-3)
0/-3 : +39/42/-3 : 0/+39

No Frank Gore, no problem against the Rams.

10 points
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) over Cleveland Browns (0-3)
-6/-17 : +19/36/-17 : 0/+25

The annual Battle of Ohio had me initially thinking this could be a game where the Browns might be capable of an upset, but the combination of Carson Palmer's improved accuracy and Cleveland's 30th-ranked run defense should help the Bengals continue their sudden emergence as a possible playoff team.

9 points
Washington Redskins (1-2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)
+8/+10 : +42/32/+10 : 0/+34

I'm not terribly thrilled with D.C. after bailing out Detroit last weekend, but if that national humiliation doesn't motivate the team into performing better this week, I don't know what will. The fact that they're playing a team I've openly stated as one that could possibly go this entire year without me picking them once as well as starting a new QB this week helps.

8 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) over San Diego Chargers (2-1)
-4/0 : -1/20/+21 : +21/+3

The Steelers have suffered a couple of unexpected losses the past two weeks, but both of those were on the road. Coming back home should help and Big Ben should shine in the nationally televised game against a San Diego squad that has a few banged-up stars.

7 points
Tennessee Titans (0-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
-14/+8 : -13/15/+2 : -6/+1

Count me in with the chorus saying that there's no way Jeff Fisher allows the Titans to start the season 0-4. And yes, the fact that they're against the always unpredictable Jags makes me nervous.

6 points
New Orleans Saints (3-0) over New York Jets (3-0)
+32/0 : +15/15/0 : 0/-17

Still haven't learned my lesson about picking against the Jets yet, I suppose.

5 points
Minnesota Vikings (3-0) over Green Bay Packers (2-1)
+24/0 : +23/26/-3 : -3/-1

I'd love to see the heavily-hyped game against his former team end up being a total bust for Favre, but Green Bay's dead-last pass defense doesn't strike me as the best source for wishful thinking this week.

4 points
Houston Texans (1-2) over Oakland Raiders (1-2)
-15/-13 : +4/13/-9 : +4/+19

A team I haven't gotten one right about against a team I haven't gotten one wrong about, but this spot on the list has treated me well with the Raiders for the last two weeks.

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (3-0) over New England Patriots (2-1)
+30/0 : +30/18/+12 : +12/0

I initially leaned toward the Pats since the game will be in Foxboro, but I have to believe that the rolling Ravens should be able to outperform a New England team that has still looked a little rusty.

2 points
Denver Broncos (3-0) over Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
+11/-6 : +13/6/+19 : +25/+2

Again, initially leaned the other way but the Broncos' offense has been a surprise so far this year and they're stocked on running backs while Dallas comes into this one hurting at that position.

1 point
Miami Dolphins (0-3) over Buffalo Bills (1-2)
0/+16 : +29/3/+26 : +10/+29

Yeah, the Dolphins lost Chad Pennington and the Wildcat isn't quite the weapon it was when Miami stunned many by winning the AFC East last year—not to mention that Buffalo's getting Marshawn Lynch back to hopefully improve their woeful running game. But after T.O. didn't get a single grab last week, I'm guessing there's going to be a little confusion as the Bills try to figure out a way to keep everybody on their offense happy.