Week Eight Picks

My picks last week only got me 68 points, but I'm willing to attribute a lot of that to picking two upsets that didn't pan out. The safer sets of picks last week all would've earned higher, whether I went with Brian Burke's probabilities (which were an amazing 12-1 and would've been good for 83 points) or my own set of numbers (which were 9-4, but would've earned 74 points). I should also note the picks from users at both ESPN and Yahoo so far this year are scoring better than myself and most of the experts and even the Accuscore simulation at ESPN is tied with Chris Mortensen.

My own set of Power Rankings-derived numbers (explanation here) this week doesn't give me too many complaints at first glance. Ties, if I haven't mentioned (and I probably haven't), are broken by which team has the higher individual winning scenario. A Dallas win scenario this week, for instance, is +62 while a Jacksonville win scenario is only +26:

• 13—Bears over Browns (75)
• 12—Cowboys over Seahawks (50)
• 11—Jags over Titans (50)
• 10—Colts over Niners (47)
• 9—Cards over Panthers (38)
• 8—Bolts over Raiders (37)
• 7 —Lions over Rams (27)
• 6—Giants over Eagles (26)
• 5—Vikes over Packers (25)
• 4—Jets over Fins (22)
• 3—Texans over Bills (19)
• 2—Saints over Falcons (15)
• 1—Broncos over Ravens (10)
  

As always, not a terrible sheet of selections, although you know how I feel about betting that high on Jacksonville.

This week's games I think are going to hinge on that seven-point spot I've had nothing but problems with so far this season. I think the top six bets are all going to be fairly common among those in the pool, but from seven on down will be where the winner is really determined—you know if we don't get an upset. According to the line, I believe I've only got three this week:

13 points
San Diego Chargers (3-3) over Oakland Raiders (2-5)
+52/+11 : +52/37/+15 : +4/+31

The Bolts need to get back in top form if they're going to get into the playoffs, seeing as Denver still hasn't shown any signs of conceding the AFC West.

12 points
Chicago Bears (3-3) over Cleveland Browns (1-6)
+14/-9 : +66/75/-9 : 0/+52

It was mentioned on the radio this week that this is essentially a playoff game for the Bears because if they lose, the season would be over to the fans. Jay Cutler should be putting up some nice numbers this weekend.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (6-0) over San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
+53/0 : +58/47/+11 : +11/+5

The Niners obviously aren't the pushover that the Rams were last week, but the Colts are still rolling and probably won't slow down until they've locked up home-field throughout the playoffs.

10 points
New Orleans Saints (6-0) over Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
+38/-2 : +29/15/+14 : +16/+9

Going big on a Monday always worries me a little bit, but the atmosphere in the Superdome should be electric for the rival Falcons and the opportunity to open up a three-game lead in the NFC South.

9 points
Dallas Cowboys (4-2) over Seattle Seahawks (2-4)
+40/+4 : +62/50/+12 : +8/+22

Seattle's banged-up defense should be in for a long day against Big D's solid running game and its newfound scoring connection between Tony Romo and Miles Austin.

8 points
Arizona Cardinals (4-2) over Carolina Panthers (2-4)
-2/-20 : +29/38/-9 : +11/+31

It begrudges me to admit that it's looking increasingly more likely that those who picked the defending NFC Champs to repeat as division winners may end up being right after all. Arizona's top-ranked rushing defense is going to force Jake Delhomme to step up and perform if he wants retribution for last year's playoff debacle.

7 points
Houston Texans (4-3) over Buffalo Bills (3-4)
-5/-15 : +7/19/-12 : +3/+12

OK, like I said, this spot's a huge concern and it was Buffalo that screwed me here last week as well. But I'll tempt fate that Matt Schaub and Houston's Top 10 offense ends the Bills' short-lived winning streak.

6 points
Detroit Lions (1-5) over St. Louis Rams (0-7)
0/+56 : +83/27/+56 : 0/+83

Alas, I finally had to pick one of them this season.

5 points
New York Giants (5-2) over Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
+44/0 : +49/26/+23 : +23/+5

The Eagles are at home and the Giants have let me down back-to-back weeks already, but I like New York to respond in a game with some pretty high stakes, as winning this could very well be a difference between first and third place in the NFC East.

4 points
Green Bay Packers (4-2) over Minnesota Vikings (6-1)
+20/+4 : +20/25/+45 : +41/0

If nothing else, I'm really just looking forward to getting the hype over with and actually focusing on the rest of the season for these teams.

3 points
New York Jets (4-3) over Miami Dolphins (2-4)
-3/-10 : +13/22/-9 : +1/+16

Yes, it was very tempting to pick the same upset that I have such fond memories of from earlier this season—especially with the injuries sustained by the Jets defense that got run all over last time—but ultimately I think that last meeting is still fresh in the minds of enough New York players and coaches to keep them inspired to return the favor in front of their home crowd.

2 points
Denver Broncos (6-0) over Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
+15/-10 : +15/10/+5 : +15/0

The Broncos defense looks to show Ray Lewis and the Ravens who the new badasses are in the NFL.

1 point
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) over Tennessee Titans (0-6)
+2/-3 : +26/50/-24 : -21/+24

The only way I could feel comfortable here was by knowing I put the least amount possible on it. Great success.