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We've arrived at my third set of pre-season predictions, and (if 2014 was any indication) presumably my last post of 2015. In looking over picks elsewhere on the web, I've noticed two things:
- Most sites are limiting predictions just to which two teams will be playing in the NBA Finals this June (maybe I should really start considering that); and
- Every single person has the Cavaliers winning the Eastern Conference.
I'm not going to be one to argue with that last belief, seeing as LeBron managed to carry the team to the Finals last season even after Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving fell to injuries. There's not much reason to believe that won't happen again this year.
The West, however, is once again wide open with possibilities. A person could pick any one of four or five teams and have a reasonable argument as to why that team will win a title.
I guess NBA fans could probably use the basketball starting, what with the recent near-death experience of Lamar Odom and now the unfortunate passing of Flip Saunders. I really didn't have time to do up any special graphic for these picks, so I instead offer that softened photo of a man everybody generally seemed to regard as a good guy.
Alas, my perfect prediction record finally ended with an NLCS result that was nearly the complete opposite of what I had forecasted in the last round. Hey, but my ALCS prediction was right on, so that puts me at 7-1 this postseason with three series predicted in the correct number of games.
We've arrived at a finale that is the first World Series ever between two post-1960s expansion teams. Of course, the story all year long has been the possible Back to the Future correlation of 2015. With the Cubs now gone, we're looking at the team that possibly winning the Series being the team that last won it the year that film was released. The other outcome would be the team that hasn't won a Series since the following year.
Oddly enough, this series also beings on October 27—the exact same date that both of these teams last won those World Series in their respective years of 1985 and 1986. If this series goes the full seven games, the November 4 finale would match the record for latest closing act ever.
I don't really know what kind of TV ratings this World Series will garner (I mean, there is a New York team here), but I'm hopeful that we're going to get one really exciting finale.
It indeed seems like something of a rarity to be this far into the playoffs without a Yankees or Red Sox on one side of the bracket and a Cardinals or Giants on the other. Nope, this year we'll be getting a world champion that hasn't last won a Series in at least 22 years.
With these kinds of droughts, we should also get some pretty thrilling settings for the remaining games—seeing as the fans in attendance will be quite worked up. I expect a similar level of enthusiasm from most players too, especially now that Jose Bautista's celebratory bat flip in the last round got so many people worked up.
Anyway, I don't really have too much of an issue with any of the remaining teams (Toronto probably ranks lowest on teams I'd want to see win it all since their 1992 title came at the expense of my beloved Braves), but overall, these are all pretty likable clubs.
Now that we've eliminated the team with the second-best regular season record (yes, I'm still bitter even though I'm cheering for the Cubs to win the World Series within five games so I can see my father weep), we get to actual baseball series. Of course, I think a best-of-five doesn't always determine the best team, but it's certainly a whole helluva lot better than the single-game dumbfuckery.
I think all four series have the potential for some pretty tense and exciting games, but I'm guessing the series in the National League should probably slaughter the American League games in terms of TV ratings. I mean, on one side you have Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. On the other side, you have Kansas City, Texas, and Canada.
Of course, as has become evident in recent years, concerns about TV ratings are hopelessly misplaced. Even a Yankees-Cubs World Series would still get pounded by any NFL game.
Now that the Wild Card round is over, there's six other clubs that now get to show whether their regular season success carries over into the playoffs. Judging by the predictions I've seen thus far, Toronto is far and away the overwhelming favorite to win the whole damn thing (I have yet to see anybody picking the Rangers to get out of this round).
The fun part (or frustrating, depending on your perspective) though is that a team could get hot right now and suddenly become nearly unbeatable for the next three weeks. So I remain skeptical that the Blue Jays just waltz away with the Commissioner's Trophy in early November (or late October).
When your favorite team is coming off a year in which they just won a Stanley Cup (the third such title in six years, no less), there would presumably some level of excitement about repeating as champions in the coming season after spending the summer celebrating. Yet here we are, with nearly every headline and story relating to the Chicago Blackhawks over the past few months having to do entirely with an alleged rape involving Patrick Kane.
Too much of the fan response to this story has been nauseating, with several shameless attempts to slut-shame the alleged victim. "Innocent until proven guilty" has been a refrain frequently repeated on Twitter. It's stunning to see how many people who are completely willing to give the former Conn Smythe winner a complete pass will waste no time in suggesting every possible ulterior motive of the alleged victim.
The whole saga has certainly dampened my enthusiasm going into this new season. Another championship banner will be raised at the United Center tonight, although I and many other Chicagoans will probably be tuning in to TBS to watch the Cubs instead.
I'm not assuming Patrick Kane is guilty here, but it seems reasonable to believe that the team would have been better served by having him stay away for the preseason out of respect to the criminal case. Instead, Kane appeared at camp and with the team in multiple other functions, always greeted with enthusiastic cheers. Something about this just makes me feel very icky.
I've spent too much time criticizing the fans of other teams who do not hesitate to welcome back players accused of misconduct (with some of the more high-profile cases having admittedly more evidence), so it's unusual for me to now wonder how I should respond when Kane scores his first goal of the regular season. What if he pots another series-clincher in the playoffs?
I do not know how much of this NHL season I will spend pondering these kinds of questions. The point is that I no longer have anywhere near the same level of adoration for No. 88 that I once had. After his cabbie-punching incident, his alleged girl-choking incident, and now this, I feel like every cheer for the guy is an unacceptable and uncomfortable endorsement.
So this will be an interesting year. Again, a year after I watched my favorite team do exactly what you cheer for your team all year to accomplish.
I'm happy that posting these predictions will knock my original season picks for the MLB season off the front page of this blog, as this year really bolsters that argument that I shouldn't bother trying to guess what teams will finish where for any sports. I don't know how this year's ineptitude compares to years past, but we'll just say this season was fucking awful.
For those keeping track at home, I got a mere two of the six division winners correct. Three for 10 on playoff teams and only seven of the 30 teams in their correct spots in the standings. Both predicted World Series participants failed to qualify.
So needless to say, you should probably take everything I say this postseason with enormous grain of salt. If you're going to use my predictions to put money down on a team, you might be better-served going with the opposite of everything I say.
If nothing else, we'll see a new champion being crowned this year. I guess it's mildly concerning for MLB that the top seeds in each league are teams from Missouri, but—with a few exceptions—I can't really see many of these teams driving big TV ratings.
I've long held that I despise the single-game Wild Card playoff idea (really loved what Cubs announcer Len Kasper suggested recently with a best-of-three using a doubleheader followed by a Game 3 if necessary), but this year is particularly frustrating because one of the top three teams in terms of regular season records is going to be eliminated by Thursday morning. After one game.
For now, we deal with the system that we have been given and hope for the best. And hopefully that includes some really riveting baseball. Because of the seeming openness of the field, I'm fairly optimistic.
After some three months off from this blog, I guess we've arrived at the time of year where I'll have to crank out a bunch of predictions over the next two months. As usual, I'm sitting here saying that I should just stop this beginning-of-the-season nonsense where I only get a handful of picks right.
But of course, last year with my football predictions I was right about my Super Bowl winner. I nailed three of the four Championship game participants. And hey, six out of eight division winners ain't bad either.
So seeing as last year I was committed to picking against the Denver team that so many people were going with, I'm feeling something similar this year after every one of the roughly 50 predictions I first saw all have a Packers-Colts Super Bowl. When something is this widely picked, it's almost certainly going to be wrong.
All of that said, I still have no idea who I actually will be picking as I type this. I can say that I already hate it because I know there's going to be at least a few out-of-nowhere surprise teams this year that I'm probably going to be too chickenshit to pick.
After a busy (by this site's standards in recent years, at least) couple months, this will presumably be my last post for a couple more months. Who knows, maybe I'll finally feel compelled to write about something other than sports predictions.
As we prepare for the last basketball series of the year, we're getting the Finals that pretty everybody expected when the playoffs began. That was kind of implied in the subtitle to my picks for the last round. I've gone 12-2 this year in the playoffs, indicative not so much of my prognosticating prowess as just how much these series have played out exactly as expected.
There's been relatively little in the way of surprises this year, and the only series that went seven games both involved the Clippers. Both conference finals were over almost as soon as they started. While there's some muffled expectations of hope for these Finals, I'm not really going to hold my breath.
In fairness, we are probably getting the two teams that are fair representatives of the best clubs in their respective conferences. That said, in a rather injury-plagued playoffs (by NBA standards, at least), the Finals is probably not the must-see appointment TV it would be had both teams been fully healthy.
I will not be the least bit surprised if the NBA Finals starting one night after the first game of the Stanley Cup Final gets decided before the NHL season officially ends.
It took a little bit longer than I had both series going, but we still ended up with the two teams I was expecting. Somewhat remarkable to get the full seven games in both conference finals, but even more remarkable when the road teams win both of them. Whatever. I'll take it.
And I'll take this Final too. One that's extremely likely if not sure to be fast-paced, awe-inspiring displays of skill on the ice. Part of me expects more contests like the first and final three games of that 2010 Stanley Cup Final, except that this Tampa club is significantly more talented than that Philadelphia squad.
That belief is not to write off the two men who will presumably be starting in between the pipes in this series, Ben Bishop and Corey Crawford. Both those goaltenders have had their moments throughout these playoffs, but there's only so much either can do. With Crow in particular, he gave up goals in the last series against Anaheim, but I really can't remember any off the top of my head that we're on him or the result of some brain farts. The Ducks scored largely off deflections or screens that were impossible to stop. I expect similar scoring in this series.
Sure, the Bolts aren't going to deliver the ratings for NBC that the network would have garnered with the Rangers, but the product is probably going to be a lot better. Anyway, knowing who I'm a fan of and the team I haven't picked against since 2009, I guess the only question is how long I see this series going.
Alas, I am perfect no more. I only got half my pricks right in the last round, bringing my total in the playoffs to 10-2 with three series having the correct number of games.
The last round was somewhat painful on two levels. One is obviously the Bulls doing what I fully expected them to do: get eliminated in six games. Still, this was perhaps the best chance that team's ever going to have, what with Kevin Love out for the Cavs and Kyrie Irving ailing. Now Chicago will probably have to extend a max deal to Jimmy Butler and be locked into the league's most expensive backcourt that prevents the team form making any more meaningful additions. My hopes for the future are not very high, and the effort displayed in the Game 6 elimination was especially revolting.
The biggest surprise in the last round had to be the evening I went to bed thinking the same Clippers team I picked at the beginning of the year to win the title were on their way to the conference finals when I awoke to learn this. And then yesterday their collapse became complete.
The Atlanta Hawks moving on was also technically a surprise since I picked the Wizards, but that ouster of Washington was not totally unexpected. I guess I can't complain too much since we'll be getting a champion this year that we haven't seen in at least two decades (it would have been more than three had the Clips hung on).
It's been a long day, and the playoffs finally resume tomorrow after something like two days without hockey. Withdrawal is a bitch.
Anyway, I got half my picks right in the last round, bringing me to a forgettable 7-5 thus far this postseason. And I've already forgotten how many series I had exactly predicted, but it was none in the most recent round.
Of the four remaining Stanley Cup Final possibilities, the NHL has to be absolutely giddy at the prospect of the much-predicted Chicago-New York Final. That would almost be certain to smash all records with the rating that would deliver.
On the other hand, Tampa vs. Anaheim? That sounds like it could smash records too. Just the ones for lowest viewership.
So do I like either of those scenarios? Or am I guessing it's going to be one of the other two?
I can't remember the last time (if ever) I went eight-for-eight in first round playoff series predictions for the NBA (or hell, the NHL), but that's exactly what happened with the last round's picks. It almost makes me wish that I had tracked the picks of other experts, not that there would have been enormous differentiation since everybody had largely the same predictions except for maybe one or two series. OK, I only had the number of games each series would take right in two of the eight series, but let me have my moment.
All of that said, the first round was largely a colossal bore. I barely peeked in on much, with only the Spurs-Clippers seven-game series really living up to expectations. I can't see how things don't dramatically improve in the second round, what with most of the teams now having to play much better competition.
Once again, the West seems like the most attractive viewing, although this Bulls fan certainly will have a rooting interest in seeing if his favorite basketball team can knock off a suddenly vulnerable Cleveland squad. Am I optimistic about those chance?
Let's see.
You might recall that when we were at this point last year, I played it safe and picked the four teams that we had in the previous year's Conference Finals to all return and set up two rematches. Instead, half of those teams got eliminated.
So here we are getting ready for the conference semi-finals (division finals?), and—minus the Los Angeles Kings—three teams are looking at return trips to the Conference Finals. All three will have home ice, so that should make them presumed favorites, although expert opinion I've seen thus far has been decidedly mixed.
I played it safe in making my second round picks last year, and felt immediately convinced that all four of the higher-ranked seeds would be advancing this year after leaning decidedly toward the upsets last round. The result, however, was that only half of my six so-called upset predictions panned out—and the Blackhawks as an upset still seems a little misleading since a majority of the picks I saw had them favored to beat the Predators.
Either way, my 5-3 record in the first round probably wasn't the best set of predictions on the internet, although four of those five correct picks also nailed the exact number of games the series would last. I'm entirely convinced that at least one underdog is going to overachieve and ruin what I'm about to publish below for this round's predictions—assuming I do go with all four favorites, of course.
In comparison to the train wreck that was my NHL predictions, my NBA predictions were a bit better. Of course, it's a bit easier when there's two more divisions with less teams. But hey, at least my title series is still alive in this sport. Not that I'm overly confident in its likelihood.
Truth be told, my picks for this first round of the NBA playoffs are pretty much going to be the exact opposite of what I was anticipating in the NHL. In other words, I'm playing it on the so-called "safe" side here and picking nearly all favorites.
Trust me, I didn't think this would be the story when I was looking at the Western Conference standings a few weeks ago and thought there was a very real chance that all the lower seeds might advance (this, obviously, was when Kevin Durant was still presumed to be participating in the playoffs). The West is just so loaded with talent that I can't deny that three so-called upsets would not surprise me.
Either way, I'm anticipating a very lively and exciting first round of basketball. Well, in the West at least. I'm not terribly likely to rip myself away from any hockey for any series in the East. Probably not even the Bulls. Wake me when LeBron is playing Chicago, thank you.
Judging by my predictions from before the season began, I'm probably not the guy to trust on what is likely to occur in these playoffs. Although I correctly named 11 of the 16 playoff teams, I had a mere five teams in their correct spots in the final standings. Worse yet, my predicted Stanley Cup Final this year is a complete impossibility as both clubs were among those five teams that I was incorrect about postseason life for.
San Jose and Columbus aren't even the most shocking teams missing from the bracket, as we have a defending champion failing to make the playoffs for the first time in eight years. And a lot of folks had higher expectations of Boston too.
Still, we now gloriously turn our attention to the actual playoffs tonight, roughly two months that might be my wife's least favorite time of year—although hell if I'm not trying to make it one of the child's favorites. After all, the one common prediction that is still possible is the one I was and still am most hoping for: Blackhawks raising Lord Stanley once again.
I'm not going to be keeping track of the predictions of other sites this year (here's the ESPN and Sports Illustrated picks, if you're curious), but I'm guessing I probably won't be setting any records with my guess anyway. I've seen a lot of chalk in some places, but it just seems to me that this year is especially ripe for upsets. Now part of that is probably my own rooting interests (for this round, at least), but perhaps this could be something similar to 2006 when the lower seeds in an entire conference stunned the favorites.
Again, this could all just be wishful thinking, but I'm pretty confident that if nothing else, I'm bound to be pretty damn entertained over the course of the next several weeks.
Dammit, I had meant to type this up during one of my lunch breaks at work, but, well, you know. Been mighty quiet around these parts.
Anyway, I'm going to be limiting my comments to pretty much just the following intro. I had toyed with the picking the Cubs to win it all this year because of the Back to the Future 2 correlation, but it looks like Jesse Spector already beat me to that. I haven't looked for many of the predictions of others (we did get a copy of Sports Illustrated in which the magazine picked the Indians[!]), but I'm guessing that the Nationals have to be a pretty (deserving) popular favorite (once again).
Seeing as my predicted winner basically never wins the World Series, I went with the Dodgers last year and the logic paid off because Los Angeles did not win the World Series. I did get all five of the National League postseason teams correct, and I'm guessing most everybody has the same three division winners in that league again this year with the only variation being in the wild cards. The American League, on the other hand, is pretty up in the air.
I almost liked the idea of going with the Dodgers again just to jinx Hell-A. But if we're looking at recent history alternating Cardinals and Giants pennants, then this should be St. Louis going to the Series this year. So without any real explanation, here's my stabs at how each team is going to finish this year's baseball season:
I've gained slightly more interest in the Oscar race ever since what was essentially me being totally clueless back when nominations were announced. However, I believe I've only seen one (UPDATE: three) of the eight films nominated for Best Picture this year, and I remained tempted to balk at posting picks this year.
Still, I couldn't resist putting some guesses in order of confidence and seeing how I scored things once again. Admittedly, I'm again playing it fairly safe since most every category has a clear frontrunner. However, what makes this year particularly interesting is that probably the two races that remain the biggest mysteries are what will be the final two awards presented.
I'm once again typing this post during a lunch break, so forgive me if I decline to offer accompanying comments for all 24 picks this year. I can only say that I found myself agreeing with many of the sentiments that were expressed in Drew Magary's "Hater’s Guide To The 2015 Oscars" (especially love the guns as therapy for PTSD and 12 Years a Slave winning last year causing Selma reluctance). Seriously, most of his comments for the Best Picture nominees are pretty much exactly what I had planned on saying, so I'd recommend checking it out because he probably put it in a much funnier way than I would've.
I can't say I'm especially interested in watching the entire show unfold before those final two awards get handed out, as Doogie Howser serving as host could be entertaining but could also mean overkill with musical numbers. Still, at least it'll be OK to have something to put on the TV that the wife and I can agree on.
The biggest drag of having to wait two weeks between the conclusion of the AFC and NFC Championship games and the kickoff to the Super Bowl is that we are forced to endure a fortnight of tired coverage that simply wants us to get to the god damn game already. This year, the first week was largely dedicated to all of the (pun not originally intended, but I won't change it) overblown controversy surrounding balls in the AFC title game being allegedly deflated by the Patriots. Keeping in mind that New England won this game by a final score of 45-7, it is fairly ridiculous for some people to have screamed as loudly as they did about the damage this revelation caused. For most level-headed sports fans, it was another disappointing example of how one team will look for any edge it can find, but it wasn't exactly the 1919 White Sox here.
Our second week of Super Bowl coverage devoted entirely too much time to Marshawn Lynch's antics in dealing with the media. Again, a tired and essentially boring non-story, but some members of the thousands-plus credentialed media members want us to believe that we should be outraged. Sorry. Don't care. Get to the football.
When this game finally does kick off, it looks like we'll be in store for another good one. Much like last year's big game, I really could find myself satisfied with either one of these teams emerging victorious. I'm hoping for one major difference from last year though in that this year's Super Bowl will actually be a much closer game. Seeing as predictions tracked at Pickwatch currently have an even 50/50 split, I think it's a reasonable expectation. I'll keep my fingers crossed. Just as soon as I remove my fingers from my ears.
According to handy Pickwatch chart, I was one of only nine observers to correctly predict all four playoff game outcomes last weekend. Additionally, the two winners and two losers in the AFC matched my pre-season predictions—although in different matchups. So we end up with a championship round in which three of the four teams I had being here are still alive, and the one I didn't pick is probably the team I'm leaning most heavily toward winning the Super Bowl next month.
Once again, the biggest story to come out of last week was another controversial call. And maybe because I'm a Bears fan who remembered that infamous Calvin Johnson catch that wasn't in 2010, I immediately thought back to that terrible call as soon as I saw the Dez Bryant play this past weekend. Thus, it couldn't have been less surprising when referees made the correct call as far as the dumb rule is written. Of course, the outrage in the Lions-Bears opener was nowhere near what it was in the Twitterverse following a critical play late in an NFL playoff game. So maybe this off-season, the league will actually do something about the rule. But I'm not holding my breath.
I will cross my fingers and hope that we can get through these final three games without any more officiating concerns dominating the discussion afterward. That would be nice since there seems to be good reason to believe that we could get some fairly entertaining contests to conclude this season.
As I said back in June after our daughter came into this world, certain "annual" posts were probably going to be abandoned. And while I included the Oscar predictions I've been making for more than two decades as a category that would be among those that would be safe, I did not realize until late this afternoon that Academy Award nominations are getting announced tomorrow morning. As you might guess, I haven't gotten out to the movies very much, what with a baby and all (although Mom says little Lucy has actually slept peacefully through the two films she took her to).
So it is with some regret that I post this notice that I will not be doing my semi-usual posting of predicted nominees. I have not been following the race at all this year and I would basically be regurgitating the predictions made by two or three other "experts" I read. It was fun in the past to spend these evenings putting together the gold-bracketed pictures of expected nominees and then changing the colors to the lime green that corresponded to correct guesses or red for wrong ones. But that will not be the case this year.
I was right on there only being one road team victory last week, but I just picked the wrong road team to pull off an upset. For a good while there last Sunday, it certainly appeared that the Lions were going to make me look good (figuratively speaking, of course), but then a mysterious flag-that-wasn't ended up being the most discussed aspect of the weekend. Nice job, NFL.
So two right, two wrong for me in the first week of the playoffs. A lot of other observers certainly did a lot better. But if I want to feel somewhat better about myself, I'd point out that I had all four of the AFC teams playing this weekend being active in this round in my pre-season predictions. Yes, completely different matchups, but let me enjoy the sunshine where I can find it please.
It once again appears that all the home teams this weekend are overwhelming favorites, but we know that there's bound to be at least one underdog that leaves us stunned. Maybe it won't have to be the result of some very questionable officiating.
Watching the inaugural college football playoff games on New Year's Day, I briefly regretted not posting my predictions here for those contests. Of course, I really haven't dedicated any space on this blog to collegiate athletics. And really, I haven't dedicated much space here to anything in recent months. Babies will do that, I suppose.
Still, with the NFL playoffs beginning this weekend, it's as good a time as any to look back on my predictions from the beginning of the year. As has so often been the story, I was right on a few, and wrong on many more. My pick for Super Bowl winner this year indeed made the playoffs, but my predicted big game loser did not. I had no divisions this season in which I got all four finishes correct. So on, so forth.
I don't really know how much of the playoffs I'll actually be able to watch, but I will say that very early on in the young daughter's life, it has seemed as though she's perhaps more spellbound by football than any other sport I've had on in the bedroom while holding her. Maybe it's the uniforms, the maybe it's the bright colors. Maybe it was just all a matter of timing (I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that hockey ultimately appeals most to her). I'll probably be getting a few more chances to test the football theory over the next month though.
I wasn't right about much this NFL season, and I'm not terribly optimistic about how I'll fare in predicting games over the next few weeks either. I'll flat out admit that I could really pick any of the eight teams playing this weekend to win, and I won't be the least bit surprised if I get all four of the following predictions wrong.
Nonetheless, here's a few guesses just to humor myself. I suppose.
