Week Two Picks

You'll notice that I've begun incorporating the numbers from my Power Rankings in the weekly picks once again (Just in case you forgot: The one week I finished in first last year was coincidentally the week I followed exactly what those numbers said), but it's clearly going to be a few more weeks before I allow them to really have much influence on where I assign the points in the confidence pool. If When you look at how misleading some of those numbers are after just one week, I'm confident you'll easily understand why.

All of that said, this week is not filled with the across-the-board vote for favorites we had last week. And so naturally I had a tough time trying to back up the few upsets I do have while feeling confident in the favorites and finding the proper place for them all.

Nonetheless, here's what I ended up with:

16 points
Washington Redskins (0-1) over St. Louis Rams (0-1)
0/+10 : +12/2/+10 : 0/+12

Maybe dropping Jason Campbell from my fantasy roster will come back to haunt me this one week, but I tried to make up for it by picking up the Redskins defense to start this week.

15 points
Minnesota Vikings (1-0) over Detroit Lions (0-1)

+4/0 : +18/18/0 : 0/+14

Believe me, nothing would bring me more joy than the Lions getting back on the winning side of things by shocking my least favorite football team, but I'm certainly not going to bet on it.

14 points
Green Bay Packers (1-0) over Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
0/-1 : 0/7/-7 : -6/0

Bengals are 0-4 all-time at Lambeau, helped none by the hugely disappointing loss they're coming off of while Green Bay's still being hyped as a team to keep an eye on.

13 points
Tennessee Titans (0-1) over Houston Texans (0-1)
0/+8 : 0/3/+3 : -5/0

Titans owner Bud Adams worked this into Jeff Fisher's contract, knowing that beating Houston was always of importance. The fact that Tennessee is still a very good team in their home opener doesn't hurt either.

12 points
Atlanta Falcons (1-0) over Carolina Panthers (0-1)
+2/0 : +5/5/0 : 0/+3

The Falcons got off to a good start and should continue rolling at home in the dome when they welcome a Panthers club that's in a bit of disarray.

11 points
New England Patriots (1-0) over New York Jets (1-0)
+16/0 : +11/11/0 : 0/-5

I really don't think Mark Sanchez can say he's been tested until he finishes this game. Truthfully, the last real confident pick on this list.

10 points
Buffalo Bills (0-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
0/+16 : +9/7/+16 : 0/+9

Initially had Bills at 11 points this week, but thinking back to how quickly they found a way to improbably blow a huge upset made be bump them down. I still think the Bucs are in danger of being the team with the worst record at the end of the year, so T.O. is whom I'm expecting to see a huge game from.

9 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) over Chicago Bears (0-1)
+8/0 : +8/9/-1 : 0/-1

I want to believe otherwise and will certainly root for otherwise, but I think the Bears are going to need a couple of games before that passing game clicks. A good question at this point would be, "When do you think the boos for the offense will start?"

I thought I'd be picking the Bears for one, but that designation was already placed upon three other games. So fandom's taking a back seat this week. Sorry.

8 points
Indianapolis Colts (1-0) over Miami Dolphins (0-1)
+11/0 : +11/13/+2 : 0/+2

I'm still tempted to believe the Dolphins are eager to show last year was no fluke and that the Colts are still vulnerable so early into their new regime, but again, all my upsets are elsewhere this week. And I think Peyton Manning wants a bye for the playoffs this year if he can get one. (Good luck in that division.)

7 points
Denver Broncos (1-0) over Cleveland Browns (0-1)
0/-6 : +4/10/-6 : 0/+4

Seven's a number I'm paranoid about, since that's where last week's picks started going astray. Having Denver, last season's Power Rankings bottom-feeder, in this slot doesn't help.

6 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) over Arizona Cardinals (0-1)
0/+11 : 0/4/+4 : -7/0

I'll buy into the idea of a Jack Del Rio needing an early win to help the season that's either going to save or cost him his job—or certainly buy into it more than the S.B.-hungover Cards that aren't going to know what hit them.

5 points
New Orleans Saints (1-0) over Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
+14/0 : +14/11/+3 : +3/0

Really tough calls begin here and these last five are equally anxiety-inducing. I'm benching Philly's defense this week in fantasy (mostly because I picked up a Redskins squad that plays a clueless St. Louis offense this week), mostly because of my faith in the numbers Drew Brees is going to still put up. The fact that I just now noticed this is in Philly doesn't make me feel any better, but McNabb is still on the bench for this one, so that does.

4 points
Oakland Raiders (0-1) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-1)
0/+15 : +13/2/+15 : 0/+13

Going with another road team, but Oakland moved the ball pretty well against San Diego. And Richard Seymour apparently will be making his presence felt despite having to do it in the black and silver. That doesn't hurt their defense any.

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) over San Diego Chargers (1-0)
+13/0 : +13/2/+15 : +15/0

You've probably heard it a million times now—and not just here—about San Diego always starting slow. Their narrow comeback victory to open the season should've been an eye-opener, but I think it gave the Ravens all they needed to know about how vulnerable the Chargers really are in Week Two.

2 points
New York Giants (1-0) over Dallas Cowboys (1-0)
+10/0 : +10/1/+9 : +9/0

I know Romo's golden in September and he's at home, but I said the Giants would have a better year and games early in the schedule where New York can pick up an important win are exactly why. Clampdown.

1 point
Seattle Seahawks (1-0) over San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
+12/0 : +5/5/0 : 0/-7

Like I said earlier, I fear that I may not be giving the Niners their fair due largely because so many admirers of his from his glory years in Chicago would say what a great coach he is regardless of the job he's doing. I think he certainly made San Francisco better last season, but the Seahawks are going to be the better team this year—if they stay healthy.

Week One Power Rankings

Last year, I didn't begin my weekly Power Rankings until Week Three, but I wanted to get back in the habit right away. While I began using the information gleaned from this process to actually assist in determining how to order my predictions in Week Nine, I'll also begin adding that little information bar below the picks this coming weekend—although I'm not terribly likely to pay much mind to what those numbers say until a few weeks down the road ... I think.

I'll also be posting my record for the year in comparison to the boys at ESPN, Yahoo, and—new this year!—my brother-in-law. LEV and my sister just welcomed my first nephew into the world, so hopefully he's still able to get to the computer to share his predictions each week as well. Oh, and I threw Pete Prisco from CBS Sports in there too.

Now, as for how the NFL's opening week went, I went 12-4, which was good for 117 points and a three-way tie for fourth place (out of 16). Most people's numbers were fairly close, but after one week, here's how things look so far (NOTE: Sucks to be Mike Golic and Ron Jaworski, both of whom did not make picks for the Monday night supposed "gimmes" that they were calling):

1. Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 14-2 (.875)
2. Mike Golic, ESPN: 13-2 (.867)
3. Jason Cole, Yahoo: 13-3 (.813)
3. Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 13-3 (.813)
5. Eric Allen, ESPN: 12-4 (.750)
5. Merril Hoge, ESPN: 12-4 (.750)
5. Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 12-4 (.750)
5. Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 12-4 (.750)
5. Adam Schefter, ESPN: 12-4 (.750)
5. Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 12-4 (.750)
5. YOURS TRULY: 12-4 (.750)
12. Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 11-4 (.733)
13. Michael Silver, Yahoo: 11-5 (.688)
13. LEV, crazy colored glasses: 11-5 (.688)

Clearly, the Power Rankings are going to be 16 ties down the line (everybody's an odd number), but I'll give the presentation edge to the victor in each game and first thoughts about each team after the first week (NOTE: Parenthetical numbers normally signify where the team was previously ranked the week before, but this being opening week, that number indicates where the team finished last season in the Power Rankings):

1. (13) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: Beat Buffalo, 25-24 (+16)
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 16
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +16
  
• First impression:

Tom Brady earns Dick Move of the Week, while Suzy Kolber continues to be a divine inspiration to us all:

1. (31) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Lost to New England, 25-24 (+16)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 16
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +16
  
• First impression:

I know it was a tough loss, but isn't vandalizing a player's lawn after one game a pretty bad sign? I know that "huge" wouldn't even begin to describe an upset of the Patriots at Foxborough, but this was not Super Bowl XXV.

3. (20) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat Oakland, 24-20 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 15
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +15
  
• First Impression:

All indications are that I was right to fear San Diego would start slow. They survived an enormous scare and might have restored a little faith in their offense, but my skepticism surrounding them in the first half of the season now strikes me as being entirely justifiable.

3. (22) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 24-20 (+15)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 15
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +15
  
• First Impresssion:

A solid outing, but all four of these top teams were involved in the Monday Night madness that was just minutes away from being the four bottom in each of the two games. Good teams do find ways to win games just as much as bad teams find ways to lose them. The Bills can pass off much of their misfortune on a fumble (which Pats fans will proudly say was one New England "made"), but the Raiders' defense—despite Richard Seymour really trying to validate that boneheaded trading away of their 2011 first-round pick—couldn't finish what it started. There were flashes of a more physical, energetic team, but here's an early contender for the fanbase that endures the most heartbreaking year of falling on the wrong side while seemingly always toeing the line that separates victory from defeat. (NOTE: That reversal on the TD was kinda bullshit.)

5. (18) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 45-27 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 14
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +14
  
• First Impression:

Somebody's feeling pretty smart for picking the Saints to be the NFL's annual worst-to-first team. Yes, I know it was the Lions, but what, you don't think they weren't dying to finally win a game?

5. (1) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 45-27 (+14)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 14
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +14
  
• First Impression:

So Detroit didn't start the year atop these rankings, where they spent most of last season. I've already mentioned how many times I picked them last year and have no plans to match or exceed that total this year. Sunday's latest bitchslap from Drew Brees didn't give me much reason to reconsider.

7. (4) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat Kansas City, 38-24 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 13
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +13
  
• First Impression:

I initially thought the Ravens' D perhaps wasn't up to snuff this year after seeing that point total, but it sounds like I made the same mistake as Mike Golic.

7. (9) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 38-24 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 13
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +13
  
• First Impression:

Keeping previous comment about the Baltimore misconception in mind, I'm not as quick to buy a similar assertion from Kansas City.

9. (10) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 28-0 (+12)
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 12
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +12
  
• First Impression:

Did what any Pops Warner team could probably do these days and kept the Rams off the board. So, the only conclusion I can safely draw is that they didn't fuck up anything too major. Nice work.

9. (2) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to Seattle, 28-0 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 12
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +12
  
• First Impression:

After Matt Hasselbeck effectively spotted them two interceptions, the Rams were able to do absolutely nothing with them. They've made the early push to remain favorites for my 15-point loser's bracket, but if things remain in such chaos, they can easily take over Detroit.

11. (3) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 14-12 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 11
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +11
  
• First Impression:

So there was good reason to be nervous last week, but at least it didn't turn out to be full-fledged frustration. It sounds as though the addition of former Eagle Hank Baskett is a move made more to improve special teams than add another weapon at wide receiver.

11. (26) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 14-12 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 11
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +11
• First Impression:

What's the answer to your game possibly being subject to a blackout because you couldn't sell enough tickets for your home opener against the defending NFC Champions?

Draft Tim Tebow, of course! (Don't ask what can be done this year, however.)

13. (4) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Beat Washington, 23-17 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 10
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +10
• First Impression:

Similar to Indianapolis in that I would have preferred a larger margin of victory, but the first real test for the Giants will come in their Week Two nationally-televised Sunday Night game in Big D.

13. (30) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 23-17 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 10
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +10
  
• First Impression:

Hung around pretty well with the favored Giants, but Jason Campbell will finally get an opportunity to add some fluff to his statistics when the 'Skins play St. Louis in Week Two.

15. (22) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 34-21 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 9
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +9
  
• First Impression:

Third NFC East team in a row, and the Cowboys had to be encouraged by how Tony Romo performed without Terrell Owens. Still, I'm not going to read too much into a win over the lowly Buccaneers.

15. (18) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Lost to Dallas, 34-21 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 9
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +9
• First Impression:

Did I hear they signed Michael Clayton? Really?

Oh, I see.

17. (7) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: Beat Tennessee, 13-10 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 8
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +8
• First Impression:

If I didn't say it last year, Big Ben is well on his way to becoming the leading iconic QB in the NFL (now that Favre's so widely viewed as an opportunistic, prima donna douchebag). Case in point: The "Get me my hat" story.

17. (20) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 13-10 (+8)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 8
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +8
• First Impression:

You still had to be impressed with the fight they put up in Pittsburgh, and their defense seemed ready to remain a force even without Albert Haynesworth.

19. (15) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat Cleveland, 34-20 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 4
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +4
  
• First Impression:

Call a doctor, because this play was sick:

19. (14) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 34-20 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 4
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +4
  
• First Impression:

O Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo?

21. (24) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat Carolina, 38-10 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 3
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +3
• First Impression:

Their defense was the top scorer for me in my first week of fantasy football, which doesn't mean all that much since most every offensive player failed to live up to their projections.

21. (21) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 38-10 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 3
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +3
  
• First Impression:

I mean, I had my doubts about Jake Delhomme, but I had no idea his debut this year would end up being that disastrous.

23. (29) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Miami, 19-7 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 2
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +2
  
• First Impression:

My top fantasy pick, Michael Turner, didn't prove why he was so highly touted in the Falcons' first game, but Atlanta did manage to comfortably handle a Dolphins squad I had expected to give them bigger problems.

23. (12) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 19-7 (+2)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
  
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 2
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +2
• First Impression:

An opening week loss suggests the haters may be right and last year's surprising division winners were a bit of a fluke. I'm not so eager to write them off entirely, but they've certainly got some work to do before I begin to feel comfortable picking them to win again.

25. (26) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Beat Chicago, 21-15 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 1
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: -1
• First Impression:

After getting by the Bears and proving themselves to be somewhat as good as their hype, the Pack's going to be able to build up a little momentum before going to Minnesota in Week Four. Chances are good that everything will be clicking for them by that time: A Cincinnati team still likely stinging from a last-second defeat followed by the hapless Rams should allow Aaron Rodgers to be well into his rhythm well before it's time to play the Vikes for control of the North.

25. (25) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 21-15 (-1)
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 1
• Plus/Minus: -1
  
• First Impression:

Where do you even begin? Your savior at QB had perhaps the worst game of his career, certainly helped none by many of those widely criticized lackluster receivers failing to either run routes or look like they had any idea what to do when Jay Cutler was forced to scramble. Oh, and that "elite" linebacking corps I had mentioned? One down for the season, and another out for an extended period of time.

27. (28) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Beat Houston, 24-7 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 5
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: -5
  
• First Impression:

One win over the Houston Texans, and suddenly there's a case of Jets fever—or at least Rex Ryan is hoping so. He's going to have to hope pretty hard, because Bill Belicheck is probably licking his lips while game-planning for New York's rookie QB.

27. (17) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 24-7 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 5
• Plus/Minus: -5
  
• First Impression:

What I had predicted would finally be the year the Texans got into the playoffs got off to far short of anything resembling encouraging. If nothing else, it resembled the team we've seen the past two years: Start sloppy, get stronger, finish at .500.

29. (32) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 12-7 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 0-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: -6
  
• First Impression:

The only team to finish in the negative for points earned for me last season more or less picks up right where they left off. But if Gus Johnson's on the call, who am I to complain?:



29. (16) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Lost to Denver, 12-7 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 6
  
• Plus/Minus: -6
  
• First Impression:

I don't know if this franchise could cause me to literally eat shit, but it does have to be rough living in Cincy these days.

31. (7) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Beat Arizona, 20-16 (-7)
  
• Actual Record: 1-0
• My predicted record: 0-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 7
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: -7
  
• First Impression:

I'm caught somewhere in between the group of fans who think they've still got a ways to go before they can be a contender and the group of Chicago fans who probably think a little too highly of Mike Singletary just for being a former Bear.

31. (6) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 20-16 (-7)
  
• Actual Record: 0-1
• My predicted record: 1-0
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 7
• Plus/Minus: -7
  
• First Impression:

Certainly am glad I went with the Super Bowl Slump hitting these guys pretty hard. Lady Luck's moved on to another team this year, boys.

My record by point value:

16-point games: 1-0
15-point games: 1-0
14-point games: 1-0
13-point games: 1-0
12-point games: 1-0
11-point games: 1-0
10-point games: 1-0
9-point games: 1-0
8-point games: 1-0
7-point games: 0-1
6-point games: 0-1
5-point games: 0-1
4-point games: 1-0
3-point games: 1-0
2-point games: 1-0
1-point games: 0-1

Week One Picks

I am already in two weekly confidence pools this year (the first is the same one I was in last year, the other is a new one on Yahoo that a friend [of a friend] does every year, I guess), and I might enter a third. But I'm never terribly eager about these first few weeks because after a month of preseason football, we still have no idea what to expect. (Exhibit A: Last year's Detroit Lions.)

Still, if I'm to improve on last year's second-place finish, I've got to take my best stab and collect all the points I can. That said, I believe I've only got one upset in this first week and I'm already doing the second-guessing I wanted to avoid. But anyway, here's how my sheet for Week One looks:

16 points
New England Patriots (0-0) over Buffalo Bills (0-0)

OK, no second-guessing here. I fully expect to frequently hear a wild, noisy crowd in Foxboro with the frequent television camera shots of Dick Jauron's blank face.

15 points
San Diego Chargers (0-0) over Oakland Raiders (0-0)

Opening with the Raiders should help San Diego avoid another slow start. The Chargers have won the last 11 times the two teams have played, but the Bolts did fail to cover the spread one time.

14 points
New Orleans Saints (0-0) over Detroit Lions (0-0)

Since the Hornets' season didn't go very long into the summer, fans in Louisiana should be fired up to have something to root for again. Starting the season with a beatdown of Detroit should do the trick.

13 points
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Ravens have won five of their last six home openers and Kansas City will probably be without their newly acquired franchise quarterback.

12 points
Seattle Seahawks (0-0) over St. Louis Rams (0-0)

Seattle has swept St. Louis each of the past four years, and the Rams have lost five of their last seven season openers.

11 points
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) over Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

There's good reason to be nervous about this one: The Jags beat Indy on their own turf last year, and Jacksonville has averaged nearly 200 yards rushing in their last six games against the Colts.

10 points
New York Giants (0-0) over Washington Redskins (0-0)

The only 300-yard game Eli Manning had last year was against the Redskins in Week 13. Of course, both of his leading receivers from both games against Washington (Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer) are no longer on the Giants.

9 points
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

"OMG! Who's Tony Romo going to throw to without T.O.?!" Irrelevant for the opener as the Cowboys will be content to run the ball down the Bucs' throat and win their first game in Tampa in nearly two decades.

8 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) over Tennessee Titans (0-0)

Big Ben put up a perfect passer rating in his first meeting against the Titans in 2005 but turned the ball over four times when he met them last year. So which version will we get this time around? Well, the defending Super Bowl champs have won all five season openers ever since the NFL made it a tradition to have them play the first night.

7 points
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) over San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

Likely to be a case of the Cards' passing attack vs. the Niners' running game, it's Arizona's offense that has far more potential. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin averaged nearly 10 yards per catch in their two games against San Fran last season.

6 points
Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) over Denver Broncos (0-0)

When we last saw them, these were two squads headed in different directions. The Bengals won their final three games of last season while the Broncos choked away the AFC West crown by dropping three straight. I'm not saying momentum neccesarily carries over some nine months later, but what was accomplished by suspending Brandon Marshall for the entire preseason?

5 points
Houston Texans (0-0) over New York Jets (0-0)

A fairly loaded Texans offense should immediately test a New York defense that the Jets are putting a lot of faith in this season, but it'll be a lot harder without Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis, both of whom are serving suspensions to start the year.

4 points
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) over Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Brett Favre threw a league-worst 22 interceptions last season, and he'll be starting the year off against a Cleveland team that nabbed 23 passes in 2008, which was second in the NFL. Interesting, but that's admittedly a lot of wishful thinking on my part. Probably just means Adrian Peterson is all the more likely to run amok in Ohio.

3 points
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) over Carolina Panthers (0-0)

I'm double-screwed here, having both of these defenses for my fantasy team (oh yeah, forgot to mention that I'm finally giving that thing a try this year too). I'm not a fan of citing preseason, but how troubled should you be as a Panthers fan if your first-team offense only scored a single touchdown?

2 points
Atlanta Falcons (0-0) over Miami Dolphins (0-0)

Toughest call I had to make this week. Both teams had remarkable turnarounds last year, but Atlanta gets my nod since they're at home. I could see this one going either way.

1 point
Chicago Bears (0-0) over Green Bay Packers (0-0)

Maybe it is more heart than head, but Lovie Smith is 7-3 against the Packers ever since arriving in Chicago and he's a remarkable 4-1 at Lambeau. Better yet, the Bears have a 10-4 record in the nationally televised night games (7-3 on Sunday nights, 3-1 on Mondays). Yeah, I'm not terribly thrilled about how Chicago's horrific pass defense of a year ago may fare, but I can't wait to see how Aaron Kampman handles his transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 linebacker. Considering Jay Cutler's primary targets may very well be tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark, that spells trouble for Green Bay.