Week Nine Picks

As I was telling B. Doggy last night, the most optimistic way to look at my picks last week was that I had the second-highest possible score for a 6-7 record with my 62 points. Needless to say, however, that I'd prefer that be my worst record for the year and everything from here on out be puppy dogs and ice cream instead of seeing if I can go 6-7 and score a 63.

Over recent weeks, I've been incorporating a number of other suggestions other than the sometimes misleading numbers garnered from my own little formula (which would've earned an even worse 53 points last week). In addition to ranking Brian Burke's probabilities (would've earned 59 points) and the Yahoo users (which would have been good for 66), there's also Wunderdog's confidence pool picks (which were the best of the bunch at 68) that I only recently found via a Google Search for "Confidence Pool" that you probably would've thought I might have tried two or so years ago.

So anyway, there's roughly four sets of numbers I'm looking at every week and using to give me a pretty good idea of how everyone else's points will probably be being doled out. And instead of posting just my numbers, I'll be putting all of theirs here because one of these weeks I'm bound to be the smartest guy in the room. This week, here's how the other guys I can fairly rank in a Confidence Pool manner look:

Brian Burke		Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
13—Saints (.92)		12—Saints (97%)	13—Saints (32-21)	13—Packers (89)
12—Packers (.88)		12—Packers (97%)	12—Seahawks (26-16)	12—Saints (62)
11—Colts (.86)		12—Falcons (97%)	11—Packers (27-19)	11—Jaguars (54)
9.5—Patriots (.83)		10—Seahawks (93%)	10—Patriots (27-19)	10—Colts (47)
9.5—Jaguars (.83)		8.5—Colts (92%)	9—Colts (28-20)	9—Patriots (45)
8—Seahawks (.81)		8.5—Patriots (92%)	8—Falcons (23-17)	8—Seahawks (39)
7—Falcons (.74)		7—Jaguars (90%)	7—49ers (23-19)	7—49ers (39)
6—49ers (.67)		6—49ers (79%)	6—Jaguars (23-19)	6—Bears (25)
5—Bears (.66)		5—Eagles (72%)	5—Eagles (26-23)	5—Falcons (23)
4—Broncos (.62)		4—Steelers (71%)	4—Ravens (23-20)	4—Cowboys (22)
3—Bengals (.59)		3—Giants (69%)	3—Steelers (22-20)	3—Giants (16)
2—Eagles (.54)		2—Ravens (64%)	2—Giants (25-24)	2—Steelers (9)
1—Chargers (.51)		1—Bears (54%)	1—Bears (23-22)	1—Bengals (8)
62 points (8-5)		62 points (7-6)	61 points (7-6)	62 points (9-4)

Obviously, Mr. Burke and Yahoo's users don't give me anything as a tie-breaker for when picks have the same percentages, so I take an average. And like I said last week, when my own numbers produce a tie, I give the edge to the team whose victory is showing more total points.

So all of these things considered, here's how I'll end up filling out my own sheet this week:

13 points
Green Bay Packers (4-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
+16/+4 : +93/89/+4 : 0/+77

I'm not falling for that "They've gotta win one at some point" temptation yet with the Bucs. Looking at they're schedule, they've only got three sub-.500 teams remaining—and worse yet, they're all on the road.

12 points
Seattle Seahawks (3-3) over Detroit Lions (1-6)
+8/+31 : +64/39/+25 : -6/+56

T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Matt Hasselbeck should be able to finally get on the same page against the 27th-ranked pass defense of the Lions.

11 points
New Orleans Saints (7-0) over Carolina Panthers (3-4)
+48/-2 : +71/62/+9 : +11/+23

Carolina's won the last seven meetings in the Superdome and Jake Delhomme is 5-0 with a 104.7 passer rating in road games against the Saints, so I'm considering an 11 here to be "playing it safe."

10 points
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) over Washington Redskins (2-5)
+16/+19 : +54/23/+31 : +12/+38

Matt Ryan might be struggling, but Michael Turner's looked impressive the past couple of weeks and I fully expect the reeling Falcons to play it smart and run all over the Skins since that's the weaker side of Washington's D.

9 points
New England Patriots (5-2) over Miami Dolphins (3-4)
+30/-3 : +43/45/-2 : +1/+13

New England has outscored their last two opponents 94-7, so even if the wildcat is working against the Pats as well as it did the last time these two teams met in Foxboro, Tom Brady will probably continue to pick another defense apart.

8 points
Indianapolis Colts (7-0) over Houston Texans (5-3)
+64/0 : +49/47/+2 : +2/-15

I really did give a little thought to thinking that since the Texans are living up to the playoff-caliber team I thought they'd be, I'd go all-out and pick them in an upset here. Houston finally gets their bye week after this and then gets the rather hapless Titans before playing the Colts again, but Indy hosts New England next week and then goes to Baltimore in that time. So while a Houston win here could completely drastically affect the race for the division title, I still like Payton Manning to outperform Matt Schaub in a helluva shootout.

7 points
San Francisco 49ers (3-4) over Tennessee Titans (1-6)
+11/+16 : +34/39/-5 : -21/+23

Halfway into the season, both teams will be using different quarterbacks than they started the season with, but the game's more likely to be determined by the running backs as the league's second-best rushing attack meets the league's second-best rushing defense. Chris Johnson might have his moments, but Frank Gore will have the bigger ones.

6 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
+1/-3 : +49/54/-5 : -2/+48

Yes, of course I've got my reservations about picking the Jags—even if they are at home. But with Larry Johnson still sitting out for calling everybody faggots and the Chiefs offense lacking any real punch, Jack Del Rio's boys should pull one out most likely due to a big game from the mighty MJD.

5 points
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) over Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
+23/0 : +27/22/+49 : +49/+4

Both teams appear to be on the upswing, but I like Donovan McNabb to have the bigger game on a Sunday Night at home than the visiting Tony Romo.

4 points
New York Giants (5-3) over San Diego Chargers (4-3)
+39/0 : +50/16/+34 : +34/+11

Two of the league's most disappointing teams, although more recently so for the G-Men while the Bolts have been underachieving seemingly every year in the perennially soft AFC West. The returns of Chris Canty and Michael Boley to New York's aching defense should help the Giants get back to their winning ways.

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (4-3) over Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
+15/-2 : -13/8/-5 : -3/-28

Too much of a "must win" for the Ravens in order to remain a factor in the AFC North. Their drubbing of the previously undefeated Broncos did not go unnoticed.

2 points
Chicago Bears (4-3) over Arizona Cardinals (4-3)
+26/-9 : +6/25/-19 : -10/-20

Anquan Boldin could be the difference-maker, assuming he's 100 percent. Even then, I'm having a hard time believing the Cards can win their fourth straight road game of the year. I don't know how the Bears pull this one out, but I'm cool with it being something like the last time these two teams met.

1 point
Denver Broncos (3-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers (0-6)
+13/-10 : +13/9/+22 : +32/0

Would Ryan Clark be heroic or just stupid for playing in this game? Pittsbugh won the AFC Title game in Denver back during their charmed 2005 run to the Super Bowl, but they haven't won a regular season game there since 1990. Oh, and how am I to resist picking the underdog at home on a Monday Night for a single point? Seemed to have worked out well for me last time.