Week Nine Picks

As I was telling B. Doggy last night, the most optimistic way to look at my picks last week was that I had the second-highest possible score for a 6-7 record with my 62 points. Needless to say, however, that I'd prefer that be my worst record for the year and everything from here on out be puppy dogs and ice cream instead of seeing if I can go 6-7 and score a 63.

Over recent weeks, I've been incorporating a number of other suggestions other than the sometimes misleading numbers garnered from my own little formula (which would've earned an even worse 53 points last week). In addition to ranking Brian Burke's probabilities (would've earned 59 points) and the Yahoo users (which would have been good for 66), there's also Wunderdog's confidence pool picks (which were the best of the bunch at 68) that I only recently found via a Google Search for "Confidence Pool" that you probably would've thought I might have tried two or so years ago.

So anyway, there's roughly four sets of numbers I'm looking at every week and using to give me a pretty good idea of how everyone else's points will probably be being doled out. And instead of posting just my numbers, I'll be putting all of theirs here because one of these weeks I'm bound to be the smartest guy in the room. This week, here's how the other guys I can fairly rank in a Confidence Pool manner look:

Brian Burke		Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
13—Saints (.92)		12—Saints (97%)	13—Saints (32-21)	13—Packers (89)
12—Packers (.88)		12—Packers (97%)	12—Seahawks (26-16)	12—Saints (62)
11—Colts (.86)		12—Falcons (97%)	11—Packers (27-19)	11—Jaguars (54)
9.5—Patriots (.83)		10—Seahawks (93%)	10—Patriots (27-19)	10—Colts (47)
9.5—Jaguars (.83)		8.5—Colts (92%)	9—Colts (28-20)	9—Patriots (45)
8—Seahawks (.81)		8.5—Patriots (92%)	8—Falcons (23-17)	8—Seahawks (39)
7—Falcons (.74)		7—Jaguars (90%)	7—49ers (23-19)	7—49ers (39)
6—49ers (.67)		6—49ers (79%)	6—Jaguars (23-19)	6—Bears (25)
5—Bears (.66)		5—Eagles (72%)	5—Eagles (26-23)	5—Falcons (23)
4—Broncos (.62)		4—Steelers (71%)	4—Ravens (23-20)	4—Cowboys (22)
3—Bengals (.59)		3—Giants (69%)	3—Steelers (22-20)	3—Giants (16)
2—Eagles (.54)		2—Ravens (64%)	2—Giants (25-24)	2—Steelers (9)
1—Chargers (.51)		1—Bears (54%)	1—Bears (23-22)	1—Bengals (8)
62 points (8-5)		62 points (7-6)	61 points (7-6)	62 points (9-4)

Obviously, Mr. Burke and Yahoo's users don't give me anything as a tie-breaker for when picks have the same percentages, so I take an average. And like I said last week, when my own numbers produce a tie, I give the edge to the team whose victory is showing more total points.

So all of these things considered, here's how I'll end up filling out my own sheet this week:

13 points
Green Bay Packers (4-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
+16/+4 : +93/89/+4 : 0/+77

I'm not falling for that "They've gotta win one at some point" temptation yet with the Bucs. Looking at they're schedule, they've only got three sub-.500 teams remaining—and worse yet, they're all on the road.

12 points
Seattle Seahawks (3-3) over Detroit Lions (1-6)
+8/+31 : +64/39/+25 : -6/+56

T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Matt Hasselbeck should be able to finally get on the same page against the 27th-ranked pass defense of the Lions.

11 points
New Orleans Saints (7-0) over Carolina Panthers (3-4)
+48/-2 : +71/62/+9 : +11/+23

Carolina's won the last seven meetings in the Superdome and Jake Delhomme is 5-0 with a 104.7 passer rating in road games against the Saints, so I'm considering an 11 here to be "playing it safe."

10 points
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) over Washington Redskins (2-5)
+16/+19 : +54/23/+31 : +12/+38

Matt Ryan might be struggling, but Michael Turner's looked impressive the past couple of weeks and I fully expect the reeling Falcons to play it smart and run all over the Skins since that's the weaker side of Washington's D.

9 points
New England Patriots (5-2) over Miami Dolphins (3-4)
+30/-3 : +43/45/-2 : +1/+13

New England has outscored their last two opponents 94-7, so even if the wildcat is working against the Pats as well as it did the last time these two teams met in Foxboro, Tom Brady will probably continue to pick another defense apart.

8 points
Indianapolis Colts (7-0) over Houston Texans (5-3)
+64/0 : +49/47/+2 : +2/-15

I really did give a little thought to thinking that since the Texans are living up to the playoff-caliber team I thought they'd be, I'd go all-out and pick them in an upset here. Houston finally gets their bye week after this and then gets the rather hapless Titans before playing the Colts again, but Indy hosts New England next week and then goes to Baltimore in that time. So while a Houston win here could completely drastically affect the race for the division title, I still like Payton Manning to outperform Matt Schaub in a helluva shootout.

7 points
San Francisco 49ers (3-4) over Tennessee Titans (1-6)
+11/+16 : +34/39/-5 : -21/+23

Halfway into the season, both teams will be using different quarterbacks than they started the season with, but the game's more likely to be determined by the running backs as the league's second-best rushing attack meets the league's second-best rushing defense. Chris Johnson might have his moments, but Frank Gore will have the bigger ones.

6 points
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
+1/-3 : +49/54/-5 : -2/+48

Yes, of course I've got my reservations about picking the Jags—even if they are at home. But with Larry Johnson still sitting out for calling everybody faggots and the Chiefs offense lacking any real punch, Jack Del Rio's boys should pull one out most likely due to a big game from the mighty MJD.

5 points
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) over Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
+23/0 : +27/22/+49 : +49/+4

Both teams appear to be on the upswing, but I like Donovan McNabb to have the bigger game on a Sunday Night at home than the visiting Tony Romo.

4 points
New York Giants (5-3) over San Diego Chargers (4-3)
+39/0 : +50/16/+34 : +34/+11

Two of the league's most disappointing teams, although more recently so for the G-Men while the Bolts have been underachieving seemingly every year in the perennially soft AFC West. The returns of Chris Canty and Michael Boley to New York's aching defense should help the Giants get back to their winning ways.

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (4-3) over Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
+15/-2 : -13/8/-5 : -3/-28

Too much of a "must win" for the Ravens in order to remain a factor in the AFC North. Their drubbing of the previously undefeated Broncos did not go unnoticed.

2 points
Chicago Bears (4-3) over Arizona Cardinals (4-3)
+26/-9 : +6/25/-19 : -10/-20

Anquan Boldin could be the difference-maker, assuming he's 100 percent. Even then, I'm having a hard time believing the Cards can win their fourth straight road game of the year. I don't know how the Bears pull this one out, but I'm cool with it being something like the last time these two teams met.

1 point
Denver Broncos (3-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers (0-6)
+13/-10 : +13/9/+22 : +32/0

Would Ryan Clark be heroic or just stupid for playing in this game? Pittsbugh won the AFC Title game in Denver back during their charmed 2005 run to the Super Bowl, but they haven't won a regular season game there since 1990. Oh, and how am I to resist picking the underdog at home on a Monday Night for a single point? Seemed to have worked out well for me last time.

Week Eight Power Rankings

From the Department of Seemingly Manufactured Coincidences: Last season during my Week Eight Power Rankings, I made a joking comment about finishing second twice instead of finishing first—and then promptly proceeded to earn consecutive second-place finishes. Of course, I did eventually get that first place finish last year (I didn't have to wait as long this season) but that's beside the point.

As one commenter was so kind as to elude to, this season's Week Eight Power Rankings won't be making any joking comments since we're coming off a weekend where a certain prophecy I made came horribly true:

This week's games I think are going to hinge on that seven-point spot I've had nothing but problems with so far this season. I think the top six bets are all going to be fairly common among those in the pool, but from seven on down will be where the winner is really determined—you know if we don't get an upset.

And sure enough, I actually got the seven-pointer from my picks right for once last weekend. Too bad all six games I was less confident on were all wrong—as was the one game I thought I was more confident on.

So looking at my 6-7 record last week, you'd probably conclude I'm filled with bad news. Well, my fantasy football team did revert to their losing ways as well ("Oh, so now Bernard Berrian puts up some points?!"), but because all of my incorrect picks were on the lowest end of the scale possible for that type of losing record, I was able to avoid the very bottom and finish 10th for the week (out of 14) with 62 points—even more amazing that I finished ahead of B. Doggy, who did a full three games better than me at 9-7 but only finished with 61 points.

And what really amazed me is that I've maintained second place for the year (out of 17) despite this string of crappy finished I've been on. But sure enough, my total for the year of 678 points leaves me only 15 behind the chick in the lead and still 17 points ahead of third place.

My performance obviously does me no favors in the weekly comparison of straight-up picks, where Mike Golic from ESPN as well as Jason Cole and Michael Silver of Yahoo all finished 10-3 to lead the group. The bro-in-law, Eric Allen and Chris Mortensen all finished 9-4, while Merrill Hoge and Mark Schlereth were right behind at 8-5. Ron Jaworski would have probably posted the same score since everybody had the Saints on Monday (oh, except for LEV), but instead we've got to mark him at 7-5 since he tries to be objective and I struggle each week to find new ways to make fun of him even though he's doing better than me. Charles Robinson was the one guy to go 7-6 while Adam Schefter, Seth Wickersham and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports joined me in the cellar by also going 6-7 on their picks.

Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week like it has all year, but I forget some of y'all are new here [Welcome!]):

1. (3) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 81-35 (.698)
2. (1) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 80-36 (.690)
2. (2) Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 80-36 (.690)
4. (4) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 74-34 (.685)
5. (5) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 79-37 (.681)
5. (8) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 79-37 (.681)
7. (7) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 78-38 (.672)
8. (11) Mike Golic, ESPN: 77-38 (.670)
9. (5) YOURS TRULY: 77-39 (.664)
10. (10) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 76-40 (.655)
10. (12) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 76-40 (.655)
12. (8) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 75-41 (.647)
13. (13) Eric Allen, ESPN: 73-43 (.629)
14. (13) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 70-46 (.603)

Now on to the numbers:

1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Beat Detroit, 17-10 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 1-7
• My predicted record: 0-8
• My record at predicting their record: 7-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +83
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +77
  

Jesus. They win one game and suddenly Steven Jackson's "the best running back in the league"? Yes, I see those numbers and my answer is still "No."

1. (2) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 0-7
• My predicted record: 0-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +77
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +77
  

Josh Freeman was told he wouldn't be playing as a rookie when he was drafted and now prepares to start his first game as the rookie QB.

3. (4) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Beat San Francisco, 18-14 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 7-0
• My predicted record: 7-0
• My record at predicting their record: 7-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +64
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +64
  

If you're looking for cracks in that facade, Indy just lost their fourth-leading tackler for the year.

3. (5) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Lost to Chicago, 30-6 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 1-7
• My predicted record: 0-8
• My record at predicting their record: 7-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +71
• Points taken from me with wins: -7
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +64

Undeniably the worst of the worst in the NFL.

5. (7) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Beat Seattle, 38-17 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 5-2
• My predicted record: 5-2
• My record at predicting their record: 7-0
• Points scored for me with wins: +49
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +53

Damn dirty points.

6. (3) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Lost to St. Louis, 17-10 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 1-6
• My predicted record: 1-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +64
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -6
  
• Plus/Minus: +50
  

Shoulda known better than to pick the Lions, but in my defense it was against the Rams—and at least I wouldn't boo Matthew Stafford.

7. (13) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Lost to San Diego, 24-16 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 2-6
• My predicted record: 1-7
• My record at predicting their record: 7-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +4
• Points scored for me with losses: +58
• Points taken from me with wins: -14
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +48
  

While we wait for Tom Cable to get counseling, there's still former Raiders to get police involved in pee-wee football. The good times never stop in Oakland.

8. (6) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 1-6
• My predicted record: 1-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +53
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
  
• Plus/Minus: +46
  

With Jarrad Page out for the year and speculation surrounding your safety position, maybe it isn't too soon to be thinking about that draft pick.

8. (12) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Beat Atlanta, 35-27 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 7-0
• My predicted record: 5-2
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +48
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -2
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +46
  

They're not too likely to stop wondering about a perfect season anytime soon with the next three opponents for the Saints having a combined record of 4-18.

10. (14) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Beat Oakland, 24-16 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 4-3
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 6-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +34
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +13
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -2
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +45
  

Philip meets Eli for the first time since the trade that put them where they are.

11. (11) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 3-4
• My predicted record: 5-2
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: +28
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: +40
  

Maybe Dan Snyder isn't a totally heartless prick after all. Maybe.

12. (7) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 40-17 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 8-0
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +55
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -16
• Plus/Minus: +39
  

The Giants desperately need a week off, but they'll have to deal with the Chargers first.

12. (16) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: Lost to Dallas, 38-17 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 2-5
• My predicted record: 4-3
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +31
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +39

Edgerrin James, two-time NFL rushing champ, out of work once again.

14. (10) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Beat Green Bay, 38-26 (-4)
  
• Actual Record: 7-1
• My predicted record: 5-3
• My record at predicting their record: 6-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +41
• Points scored for me with losses: +4
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +37
  

Maybe the Williams brothers aren't totally in the clear just yet if Roger Goodell is telling Congress about that suspension they're fighting, "We think we're in the right on the merits."

15. (19) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 35-27 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 4-3
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 6-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +16
• Points scored for me with losses: +22
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +35
  

OK, that was impressive.

16. (9) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Beat Arizona, 34-21 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 3-4
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +18
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +31
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +34

Good thing the Panthers D regained their "swagger" right before they go and play the undefeated Saints in New Orleans. I won't hold my breath.

17. (14) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 5-2
  
• My predicted record: 7-0
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +44
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -12
  
• Plus/Minus: +32

Another one of those somewhat silly and totally unscientific Sports Illustrated poll has concluded Hines Ward is the league's dirtiest player. I'd still take him on my team, thank you.

18. (18) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 5-2
• My predicted record: 6-1
• My record at predicting their record: 4-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +45
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
• Plus/Minus: +27

I guess you shouldn't count on Tom Brady sucking anytime soon.

18. (22) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 18-14 (+11)
  
• Actual Record: 3-4
• My predicted record: 1-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +11
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +24
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -8
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +27
  

One year into the Mike Singletary era in San Fran, it sounds like the grade is incomplete.

20. (17) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat New York Giants, 40-17 (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 5-2
• My predicted record: 5-2
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +37
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: +23
  

Not that the Eagles were struggling without him last week, but getting Brian Westbrook back certainly won't hurt any either.

21. (23) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Lost to Houston, 31-10 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 3-5
• My predicted record: 2-6
• My record at predicting their record: 5-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
• Points scored for me with losses: +37
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -18
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: +22
  

For what it's worth, Trent Edwards should be ready to play when the Bills come back from the week off.

22. (20) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 38-26 (-4)
  
• Actual Record: 4-3
• My predicted record: 5-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +34
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
  
• Plus/Minus: +20
  

If Aaron Rodgers is sacked in the final eight games half as much as he was in the first eight, it should be good for a new team record.

23. (25) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Beat Cleveland, 30-6 (+12)
  
• Actual Record: 4-3
• My predicted record: 6-1
• My record at predicting their record: 3-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +33
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +17
  

Never forget.

24. (21) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: Beat New York Jets, 30-25 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 3-4
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 5-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +16
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -3
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -1
  
• Plus/Minus: +14
  

Jason Taylor doesn't hold anything back I guess: "To score a touchdown in New York against the Jets in the last time I'll be in the hellhole they call a stadium up there before they get rid of it and move to the new one, it was outstanding."

25. (23) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat Denver, 30-7 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 4-3
  
• My predicted record: 6-1
• My record at predicting their record: 3-4
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +30
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -2
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
• Plus/Minus: +13

Michael Oher claims to never have been ashamed of where he came from, but his attitude will probably change after the reviews come in on his life story starring Sandra Bullock. Yes, really.

26. (25) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 30-7 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 6-1
• My predicted record: 5-2
• My record at predicting their record: 4-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
  
• Plus/Minus: +3
  

At the beginning of the season, I might have expected a debate involving Kyle Orton and Josh McDaniels to be in regards to whom Denver fans blamed more for the team's woes, but instead they're wondering who deserves more credit.

27. (27) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 30-13 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 1-6
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 3-4
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +24
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -1
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -21
• Plus/Minus: +2

Contrary to the assertion made in an earlier link relating to another team that broke from the ranks of the winless, I think this no longer winless squad is the one boasting the better running back. At least he's got the most significant claim to support that.

28. (28) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 30-13 (-1)
  
• Actual Record: 3-4
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 3-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +8
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +14
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -17
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
• Plus/Minus: -2
  

What's that? FULL PADS PRACTICE?! DAAAAAAAAAAMN. Bet they still suck.

29. (30) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Beat Buffalo, 31-10 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 5-3
• My predicted record: 5-3
• My record at predicting their record: 4-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +17
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -20
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
  
• Plus/Minus: -13
  

The same Texans I picked to finally make the playoffs—Remember? Remember?!—are off to the best start in franchise history.

30. (29) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Lost to Miami, 30-25 (-3)
  
• Actual Record: 4-4
• My predicted record: 3-5
• My record at predicting their record: 3-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +8
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -17
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: -16
  

The once tough-talking Jets now feel "sick." Makes two of us, I guess.

31. (31) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Lost to Carolina, 34-21 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 4-3
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 2-5
• Points scored for me with wins: +5
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -22
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -15
• Plus/Minus: -30
  

If Anquan Boldin's likely to play in Chicago on Sunday, that should significantly help the Cards chances. They have won all three games they've played on the road so far this season.

32. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 5-2
• My predicted record: 3-4
• My record at predicting their record: 1-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -28
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: -31
  

Oh Cincy, so close to getting a link of your own here after the bye week, but unfortunately Arizona's slip still leaves the Bengals as my worst-performing team and instead of wasting anymore time on them, let's try not to ignore the early talk about a strike in the NFL. There's going to be more of those.

As for how I'm performing by the point value, last week's poor showing only affected those lowest six spots. I slipped to .500 on the six-pointers and now my three-pointers have been just as bad as my sevens:

16-point games: 3-0
15-point games: 3-0
14-point games: 4-2
13-point games: 7-1
12-point games: 8-0
11-point games: 6-2
10-point games: 6-2
9-point games: 7-1
8-point games: 5-3
7-point games: 3-5
6-point games: 4-4
5-point games: 5-3
4-point games: 5-3
3-point games: 3-5
2-point games: 6-2
1-point games: 2-6