The Braves' Fourth Quarter: Staying Alive

Well, one last division title may have eluded Bobby Cox, but the good part has to be that indeed the Braves will be headed back into the postseason for one final shot at another World Series win. And when you consider the loss not only of Chipper Jones, but the additional injury suffered by Martin Prado—not to mention nagging setbacks suffered on the pitching staff, most notably to Jair Jurrjens—Atlanta certainly lived up to that "suspense" part of the title I had used last quarter.

It wasn't until that very last day of the season that the Braves managed to squeak into the playoffs via a Wild Card berth. Sure, it's a little disappointing to watch the East slip away after holding on to the lead for so much of the season, but still playing baseball in October—whatever title it is that got you there—is a helluva lot better than not qualifying at all. And while the depleted roster and a hot second-half opponent has pretty much made most experts think San Francisco's going to walk right into the NLCS, I do like the two points Gondee made over at Talking Chop: The Giants have lost to a Wild Card team each of the last four times they've qualified for the postseason, and three of those four teams went on to win the World Series. So I'll take any reason for optimism I can find:

RECORD FOR THE QUARTER: 19-21 (91-71 OVERALL) — Unfortunately, Atlanta won only five of their final 13 series after August 20, losing seven and splitting a four-game set with St. Louis. Dropping two of three in Pittsburgh seems pretty bad, but for a team priding itself on its record at home, the Braves dropped seemingly must-win sets at the Ted with Washington and Philadelphia.

BEST WIN: October 3 (Braves 8, Phillies 7) — Having entered their final series of the year with a two-game lead in the Wild Card race and a magic number of two, the Braves watched San Diego stave off death for two days while Philly wasn't content to let Atlanta get an easy path in. On the final day of the regular season with the Wild Card race now tied, the Braves came to life and took charge of their own destiny. After the Phillies put the first two runs on the board, Atlanta responded with eight of their own and then—just to max us out on that whole suspense thing—watched as Philly cut the lead down to a single run. But in the end, Billy Wagner slammed the door shut on the division rivals to secure at least one more day of life. Ironically, the same San Francisco Giants that the Braves swiped the then-NL West title from back in 1993 on the final day of the season, helped send Atlanta back to the postseason by finally knocking off the Padres in San Francisco. The Braves did make two errors in the game, but every starter had a hit and the Braves were able to finally get one win over the white-hot Phillies. Since the win essentially prolonged the life of this season and extended the managerial career of Bobby Cox at least three more games, no other win this quarter was quite as dramatic (this one was in consideration before the finale though) or meaningful.

WORST LOSS: August 25 (Rockies 12, Braves 10) — So that's what it feels like to be on the other end. Perhaps you'll recall the glorious comeback that marked the end to that first quarter. But this time around, it was Atlanta that jumped out to a 10-1 lead after three innings. It appeared the team was going to salvage something from their trip to Denver after dropping the first two games of the series, but sure enough, the Rockies chipped away at the lead by getting a run in the fourth before putting up three runs in the fifth, three more in the sixth, and then finally tacked on four more in the eighth to bring the grand total of unanswered runs to 11. I initially thought that maybe the win for Colorado would be the one that salvaged their own season and made them contenders again in the National League West (which it didn't), but mostly I was concerned about if it would spell doom for Atlanta's own chances of getting into the post-season. As was the case with the win I just talked about, two more errors in this loss as well. Had the Braves hung on, they could have taken a little more pride in each member of the starting lineup having an extra-base hit in this game—an accomplishment that hadn't occurred since some team called the Expos did that way back when I wasn't even three months old. Oh, and that happened against Atlanta, of course.

MVP: Derek Lowe — Although he lost his August 24 outing in that same Colorado series (despite working six innings), Lowe won every single game he started after that. And over the course of the last five games he's pitched, Lowe has only allowed four measly runs. Perhaps no start was more dominating than his September 13 game against the Nationals in which he fanned 12 Washington hitters, but overall he's ended the year by bringing his best stuff. The 1.37 WHIP is just a little above the league average, but over those final five starts, Lowe walked only three batters while striking out 29. I wouldn't have guessed that he'd be one of the guys I'd feel most confident about heading into the postseason, but as he prepares to take the mound for the Division Series opener in San Francisco, I don't know that I'd want anybody else.

LVP: Mike Minor — Hmmm ... maybe we all jumped the gun. While he struck out a dozen Cubs as part of the Braves spanking Lou Piniella into retirement on August 22 and ended the month with a win over the Mets, it was all downhill from there for the rookie. Minor's ERA ballooned more than two points from 3.91 at the end of August to a 5.98 by season's end. The next highest K-total he had had after that 12-strikeout performance in Chicago was only half that when he stuck out six lowly Nationals in a loss to Washington. He never did walk more than a single batter any of his last five starts, but over the course of those same five games, Minor did give up five of the six home runs he allowed this season. The result is that the youngster got left off the playoff roster. Sure, there's a lot of promise for the future, but with the playoffs getting started tonight, right now the Braves need to be concerned more with the players who can deliver right now.

THREE THINGS I'VE LIKED SO FAR:

1. GIVING BOBBY WHAT HE DESERVED — I was really beginning to sweat that the graphic for the fourth quarter might have to be a depressing final image, but I couldn't be more grateful that if nothing else, the regular season gets to end with the image that I did end up getting to use. I only hope there's more where that came from.
2. OCTOBER BASEBALL!!! — I understand that the reason so many of my friends essentially loathe my beloved Bravos is because Atlanta had those 14 consecutive postseason appearances. I hope they enjoyed the five-year break, because HOT DAMN, it feels good to still have something to cheer on in October again.
3. A PITCHING STAFF TO BELIEVE IN ... — As I said, Derek Lowe's been as good as ever when it counted toward the end of the season. Tim Hudson had already been named the National League's Comeback Player of the Year. And Tommy Hanson's record could be a lot better had he gotten a little more run support. In addition to the starters, there's the fact that the Braves also boast the second-best bullpen of all playoff teams. As Procappers Weekly noted in their ranking of the best pens this postseason, you might not recognize the names in Atlanta's bullpen, but those numbers from the regular season speak for themselves.

THREE THINGS I HAVEN'T:

1. ... ABOUT THAT LINEUP THOUGH — The loss of Chipper was bad, and losing Prado will hurt even more. Considering that the only bullpen better than the one the Braves are boasting is the one on the San Francisco team they'll be facing, that means there's going to need to be a bit more pop from the bats early and often. And what's more, there's going to be little to no room for errors in the field, as the Giants will surely make Atlanta pay for each and every mistake.
2. HOME-FIELD'LL HAVE TO WAIT — Last update, it was seeming like the very real possibility was that the Braves could fall back on an impeccable home record and take comfort in hosting more games in every series than they'd have to be on the road. Now it appears that the only way they'll have home-field is if, and only if, the team gets to the World Series.
3. NOT AS WILD ABOUT THE WILD CARD — It admittedly feels as though Atlanta limped into the postseason, and while wrapping up a spot on the final day of the season was surely dramatic, it also lacked creating the confidence that finishing ahead of the Phillies would have carried. Again, not too many are giving the Braves much of a chance to even push the series to five.

25 WORDS OR LESS:

Although there's not as much reason for optimism as there was a month ago, it's still playoff baseball and that's when anything is possible.