Week Six Picks: Shaking it off

After last week's results felt something like a kick in the groin, this gif—starring everyone's least favorite QB—couldn't be more appropriate to accompany this week's picks. Let's all hope somebody can finish the week over .500—and by "somebody," I of course mean myself.

I'm guessing the four highest bets in the confidence pools will be pretty similar this week, but everything after that might be pretty up in the air. So it could be a weekend for some pretty drastic rises or falls depending on who does how well, but I'll probably continue to err on the side of caution until I've amassed a comfortable enough lead to take risks. All of this is not to mention that after last week's poor showing from most every other prognosticator, we've still got a number of games where an upset wouldn't surprise me.

Our beloved Bears get to host a Seattle team that hardly anybody is giving a chance to emerge victorious on Sunday. The game of the week would either have to be Baltimore going in to New England with both teams only having suffered one loss so far this season, or the battle of disappointments between the Cowboys and Vikings in Minneapolis where one team will get only its second win of the year and the other will drop to 1-4 and be subject to extreme criticism for the entire week. Should be fun.

Here's how the usual five alternate layouts would go this week (based upon picks as posted Saturday night 10 p.m. CST):

PFW Spread	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	Brian Burke	My Numbers
13.5 (11)	14 (97%)	14 (25-14)	13.5 (.89)	14 (61)
13.5 (11)	12.5 (93%)	13  (28-16)	13.5 (.89)	13 (38)
12 (7 ½)	12.5 (93%)	12  (28-18)	12 (.80)	12 (35)
10.5  (6 ½)	11  (91%)	11  (22-15)	10.5 (.73)	11 (30)
10.5 (6 ½)	10  (86%)	10  (23-19)	10.5 (.73)	10 (24)
9 (5)	9 (84%)	9  (25-21)	9 (.68)	9 (23)
8 (4 ½)	8 (83%)	8 (24-20)	8 (.62)	8 (12)
7 (4)	7 (80%)	7 (22-18)	7 (.61)	7 (10)
6 (3 ½)	6  (72%)	6 (24-21)	6 (.60)	6 (9)
4 (3)	5 (71%)	5 (22-19)	5  (.59)	5 (8)
4 (3)	4 (63%)	4 (24-21)	4 (.58)	4 (7)
4  (3)	2.5  (61%)	3 (23-21)	3 (.57)	3 (5)
2 (2 ½)	2.5 (61%)	2 (22-21)	2 (.52)	2  (5)
1 (E)	1  (54%)	1 (22-21)	1 (.51)	1 (4)
66.5 points (8-5)	66 points (8-5)	68 points (10-3)	55.5 points (7-6)	60 points (7-6)

I should point out—because I don't think I ever have before—that Pro Football Weekly does actually publish confidence pool picks for members of its Handicapping Inner Circle, which I'm obviously not a member of. So again, the picks I present as theirs are really just a reflection of a set of picks based on the line, although I take the PFW staff's actual picks for those games so that it's not always the favorite.

Anyway, none of that's really all that important, but here's what is, and that's my own picks—still presented without any commentary for the time being:

14 points

New York Giants (3-2) over Detroit Lions (1-4)

+9/+1 : +63/61/+2 : +1/+54

13 points

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) over Cleveland Browns (1-4)

+3/-9 : +22/35/-13 : -4/+19

12 points

Chicago Bears (4-1) over Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

+18/-15 : +3/23/-20 : -5/-15

11 points
San Diego Chargers (2-3) over St. Louis Rams (2-3)
-14/0 : -12/12/0 : 0/+2


10 points
Tennessee Titans (3-2) over Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

+2/-11 : +14/24/-10 : +1/+12

9 points
New York Jets (4-1) over Denver Broncos (2-3)
+18/-2 : +38/38/0 : +2/+20


8 points
Green Bay Packers (3-2) over Miami Dolphins (2-2)

+26/0 : +14/7/+7 : +7/-12

7 points
San Francisco 49ers (0-5) over Oakland Raiders (2-3)

-14/+27 : +3/30/+33 : +6/+17

6 points
Houston Texans (3-2) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
+2/-6 : -11/5/-6 : 0/-13

5 points

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) over Washington Redskins (3-2)

+14/0 : -3/10/-13 : -13/-17

4 points

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) over Dallas Cowboys (1-3)

0/+16 : -5/8/-13 : -29/-5

3 points
New Orleans Saints (3-2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

+22/+1 : +5/4/+1 : 0/-17

2 points 

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) over Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

+23/0 : +28/9/+19 : +19/+5

1 point

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) over New England Patriots (3-1)

+27/-4 : +27/5/+22 : +26/0