Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Week Six Power Rankings: Absorbing a few more hard hits

"Funny" would be the wrong word to use, but here we are again one year after Malcolm Gladwell had an article published in the New Yorker asking, "How different are dogfighting and football?" And now that the NFL is talking about stricter penalties for devastating hits "flagrant and egregious violations" of current rules after a weekend in which those types of hits most of us have come to love football precisely for garnered an awful lot of attention, the Gladwell piece seems even more relevant.

Of course, I consider myself to be one of the more fortunate ones who never played the sport on any competitive level other than pick-up games and my experience with the sport has never placed me any closer to it than being on the sidelines for covering high school games. I suppose that might make me less of a man to the more macho types, but I've seen Alzheimer's and thanks, but I'd rather avoid anything that seems more likely to cause my brain to take on those characteristics.

Of course, you wouldn't know how healthy my brain is by some of my picks this year. Actually, looking back on how I was faring at this point in the season last year, the 71 points I earned with my picks last week brings me to a total that is nearly 100 points behind what I had back then. My brain cites this season being more unpredictable than last, obviously.

I matched my season-low finish in the PoolHost confidence pool last week by finishing 13th out of 19:


The lackluster finish also drops me into fifth out of the now 19 participants, and I've fallen behind the leader by 18 points:


And for the second straight week in Yahoo pool, I finished in fifth out of the seven guys there:


And worse yet, I've now fallen into third on the year—although my deficit for the season remains at the same 32 points I was trailing by last week:


As for how my picks looked on the straight-up level, I did manage to go 9-5 for the weekend. There was a trio of gentlemen tied atop the standings for the week as Yahoo's Jason Cole as well as Mike Golic and Mark Schlereth from ESPN all went 10-4. The bro-in-law, Merrill Hoge, Chris Mortensen, and Seth Wickersham all had the same 9-5 mark as myself, while Ron Jaworski finished finished 8-5. Michael Silver and Adam Schefter both went 8-6, but there was also a three-way tie for last this past weekend as Eric Allen, Les Carpenter, and Pete Prisco from CBS Sports all went 6-8.

That shakes up the standings for the year a little bit:

1. (2) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 57-33 (.633)
1. (1) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 57-33 (.633)
3. (5) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 55-35 (.611)
4. (4) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 50-33 (.602)
5. (3) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 52-38 (.578)
5. (9) Mike Golic, ESPN: 52-38 (.578)
5. (6) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 52-38 (.578)
5. (7) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 52-38 (.578) 
5. (7) YOURS TRULY: 52-38 (.578)
10. (9) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 50-40 (.556)
11. (12) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 49-41 (.544)
12. (11) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 47-43 (.522)
12. (13) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 47-43 (.522)
14. (14) Eric Allen, ESPN: 42-48 (.467)

In the Power Rankings, somehow two of my top three teams stayed where they were despite having the week off. But perhaps most surprising would have to be that the Denver-freaking-Broncos are currently in fourth place and are actually only a single point away from finally having a cumulative total that isn't in the negative.

But now me having typed that will of course jinx them this weekend and they'll probably free fall right to the bottom by the end of the season. Anyway, at this point:
1. (1) DETROIT LIONS
  • Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 28-20 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 1-5
  • My predicted record: 1-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 6-0
  • Points scored for me with wins:+1
  • Points scored for me with losses: +68
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +69

2. (2) BUFFALO BILLS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 0-5
  • My predicted record: 1-4
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +50
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -2
  • Plus/Minus: +48

3. (3) CAROLINA PANTHERS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 0-5
  • My predicted record: 1-4
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +42
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -8
  • Plus/Minus: +34

4. (12) DENVER BRONCOS
  • Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 24-20 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 2-4
  • My predicted record: 1-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +2
  • Points scored for me with losses: +35
  • Points taken from me with wins: -6
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +31

5. (8) OAKLAND RAIDERS
  • Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 17-9 (+7)
  • Actual Record: 2-4
  • My predicted record: 1-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +6
  • Points scored for me with losses: +38
  • Points taken from me with wins: -14
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +30

6. (4) ARIZONA CARDINALS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 3-2
  • My predicted record: 2-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +21
  • Points scored for me with losses: +19
  • Points taken from me with wins: -11
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +29


7. (15) CLEVELAND BROWNS
  • Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 28-10 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 1-5
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +1
  • Points scored for me with losses: +32
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -5
  • Plus/Minus: +28

8. (8) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  • Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 31-6 (+3)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 5-1
  • My record at predicting their record: 5-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +36
  • Points scored for me with losses: +1
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -11
  • Plus/Minus: +26

9. (5) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  • Last week: Beat Baltimore, 23-20 [OT] (-1)
  • Actual Record: 4-1
  • My predicted record: 4-1
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +29
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -1
  • Points taken from me with losses: -3
  • Plus/Minus: +25

9. (13) NEW YORK JETS
  • Last week: Beat Denver, 24-20 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 5-1
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +27
  • Points scored for me with losses: +3
  • Points taken from me with wins: -5
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +25

11. (19) NEW YORK GIANTS
  • Last week: Beat Detroit, 28-20 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +26
  • Points scored for me with losses: +10
  • Points taken from me with wins: -9
  • Points taken from me with losses: -3
  • Plus/Minus: +24

12. (17) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  • Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 30-3 (+10)
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 1-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +1
  • Points scored for me with losses: +36
  • Points taken from me with wins: -14
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +23

13. (8) BALTIMORE RAVENS
  • Last week: Lost to New England, 23-20 [OT] (-1)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 5-1
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +31
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -4
  • Points taken from me with losses: -5
  • Plus/Minus: +22

13. (7) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
  • Last week: Beat Atlanta, 31-17 (-2)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +26
  • Points scored for me with losses: +5
  • Points taken from me with wins: -2
  • Points taken from me with losses: -7
  • Plus/Minus: +22


15. (8) ATLANTA FALCONS
  • Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 31-17 (-2)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 6-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +25
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -4
  • Plus/Minus: +21

16. (17) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  • Last week: Beat Oakland, 17-9 (+7)
  • Actual Record: 1-5
  • My predicted record: 3-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +7
  • Points scored for me with losses: +27
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -14
  • Plus/Minus: +20


16. (13) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
  • Last week: Beat Dallas, 24-21 (+4)
  • Actual Record: 2-3
  • My predicted record: 3-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  • Points scored for me with wins: +18
  • Points scored for me with losses: +16
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -14
  • Plus/Minus: +20


18. (16) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
  • Last week: Beat Washington, 27-24 (+5)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 6-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 4-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +37
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -18
  • Plus/Minus: +19

19. (5) GREEN BAY PACKERS
  • Last week: Lost to Miami, 23-20 [OT] (-8)
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 6-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +35
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -17
  • Plus/Minus: +18

20. (25) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  • Last week: Beat Cleveland, 28-10 (+13)
  • Actual Record: 4-1
  • My predicted record: 3-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +20
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -9
  • Points taken from me with losses: -4
  • Plus/Minus: +7

21. (20) CINCINNATI BENGALS
  • Last week: BYE
  • Actual Record: 2-3
  • My predicted record: 2-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: +10
  • Points scored for me with losses: +12
  • Points taken from me with wins: -4
  • Points taken from me with losses: -12
  • Plus/Minus: +6


22. (23) HOUSTON TEXANS
  • Last week: Beat Kansas City, 35-31 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 5-1
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +19
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -6
  • Points taken from me with losses: -11
  • Plus/Minus: +2

23. (26) TENNESSEE TITANS
  • Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 30-3 (+10)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: +25
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -11
  • Points taken from me with losses: -13
  • Plus/Minus: +1


24. (27) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
  • Last week: Lost to Houston, 35-31 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 3-2
  • My predicted record: 0-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +16
  • Points taken from me with wins: -23
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: -7

25. (22) ST. LOUIS RAMS

  • Last week: Beat San Diego, 20-17 (-11)
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 0-6
  • My record at predicting their record: 3-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +20
  • Points taken from me with wins: -29
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: -9

25. (21) CHICAGO BEARS
  • Last week: Lost to Seattle, 23-20 (-12)
  • Actual Record: 4-2
  • My predicted record: 4-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: +21
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: -15
  • Points taken from me with losses: -15
  • Plus/Minus: -9

27. (24) MIAMI DOLPHINS
  • Last week: Beat Green Bay, 23-20 [OT] (-8)
  • Actual Record: 3-2
  • My predicted record: 2-3
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: +9
  • Points scored for me with losses: +2
  • Points taken from me with wins: -22
  • Points taken from me with losses: -2
  • Plus/Minus: -13

28. (29) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
  • Last week: Lost to New Orleans, 31-6 (+3)
  • Actual Record: 3-2
  • My predicted record: 0-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +10
  • Points taken from me with wins: -24
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: -14

29. (31) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
  • Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 27-24 (+5)
  • Actual Record: 3-3
  • My predicted record: 1-5
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +10
  • Points taken from me with wins: -22
  • Points taken from me with losses: -13
  • Plus/Minus: -25

30. (28) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
  • Last week: Lost to St. Louis, 20-17 (-11)
  • Actual Record: 2-4
  • My predicted record: 6-0
  • My record at predicting their record: 2-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: +25
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: -50
  • Plus/Minus: -25

31. (32) DALLAS COWBOYS
  • Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 24-21 (+4)
  • Actual Record: 1-4
  • My predicted record: 3-2
  • My record at predicting their record: 1-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +4
  • Points taken from me with wins: -5
  • Points taken from me with losses: -29
  • Plus/Minus: -30

32. (29) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
  • Last week: Beat Chicago, 23-20 (-12)
  • Actual Record: 3-2
  • My predicted record: 1-4
  • My record at predicting their record: 1-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: +2
  • Points taken from me with wins: -29
  • Points taken from me with losses: -5
  • Plus/Minus: -32

And it looks like I've got winning percentages in half of the 16 spots on the year with four being at .500 going into Week Seven:

16-point games: 2-1
15-point games: 3-0

14-point games: 4-2
13-point games: 5-1
12-point games: 3-3
11-point games: 3-3
10-point games: 5-1
9-point games: 5-1
8-point games: 2-4
7-point games: 4-2
6-point games: 2-4
5-point games: 3-3
4-point games: 2-4
3-point games: 3-3
2-point games: 2-4
1-point games: 4-2

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