Week Five Power Rankings: Fugly as sin

It only seems fitting that the fine folks over at GIF-A-Day had this one running as their most recent post, since it pretty much represents how this past weekend's NFL picks ended up being. This must be what they're talking about with that whole "parity" thing in the National Football League.

My picks last weekend were worth an embarrassingly pitiful 47 points, which might be a total that represents an all-time low in my three years of tracking this confidence pool business. I'd be angrier about the whole thing if I were alone in the piss-poor performance, but as you'll see in looking over how others fared with prognosticating last weekend, upsets reigned for Week Five.

Perhaps the only comfort I can take is that I did not, somehow, end up finishing in last place.
For the PoolHost confidence pool, the final two games of the week helped pull me up from the bottom to the middle of the pack where I finished ninth out of 18:

And while I dropped into fourth place for the year in the overall standings, I somehow remain only a dozen points out of first place for the year:

Out of the seven people still participating in the Yahoo pool, my picks were closer to the bottom than the top as I finished in fifth:

And on top of the poor finish there, I might still be in second but am now even further out of first as the deficit has now increased to 32 points:

Perhaps what's most incredible to me is that while my 7-7 mark for the week has been my worst performance so far in this still-young NFL season, it was actually good enough to tie for the best record of the week. Also coming in at .500 last week were Yahoo's Jason Cole, Pete Prisco from CBS Sports, as well as Mike Golic, Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, and Mark Schlereth from the ESPN gang. The bro-in-law was right behind at 6-8 while Ron Jaworski was 6-7. Les Carpenter, Michael Silver, and Seth Wickersham all finished 5-9, while Eric Allen and Merrill Hoge tied for the worst predictions of the week at 4-10.

So I obviously didn't lose any ground in the standings for the year:

1. (1) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 48-28 (.632)

2. (3) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 47-29 (.618)

3. (1) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 46-30 (.605)
4. (4) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 42-28 (.600)
5. (6) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 45-31 (.592)
6. (5) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 44-32 (.579)
7. (7) LEV, crazy colored glasses: 43-33 (.566) 
7. (8) YOURS TRULY: 43-33 (.566)
9. (10) Mike Golic, ESPN: 42-34 (.553)
9. (10) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 42-34 (.553)
11. (12) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 41-35 (.539)
12. (8) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 40-36 (.526) 
 13. (13) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 38-38 (.500)
14. (14) Eric Allen, ESPN: 36-40 (.474)

Now as for the Power Rankings, we've got just as many teams improving their point totals as worsening them:

1. (1) DETROIT LIONS

• Last week: Beat St. Louis, 28-26 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 1-4
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 5-0
  
• Points scored for me with wins:+1
• Points scored for me with losses: +54
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +55

2. (2) BUFFALO BILLS

• Last week: Lost to Jacksonville, 36-26 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 0-5
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +50
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
• Plus/Minus: +48
  

3. (7) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Last week: Lost to Chicago, 23-6 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 0-5
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +42
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -8
  
• Plus/Minus: +34

4. (3) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Last week: Beat New Orleans, 30-20 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +29

5. (8) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 3-1
• My predicted record: 4-0
• My record at predicting their record: 3-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -3
• Plus/Minus: +26

5. (6) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Last week: Lost to Washington, 16-13 [OT] (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 5-0
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +35
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -9
  
• Plus/Minus: +26
  

7. (9) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Last week: Beat San Francisco, 27-24 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 4-1
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +26
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -7
  
• Plus/Minus: +24

8. (15) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Last week: Beat Denver, 31-17 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 4-1
• My predicted record: 4-1
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +31
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -4
• Plus/Minus: +23

8. (5) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Last week: Lost to Arizona, 30-20 (-11)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 4-1
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +33
• Points scored for me with losses: +1
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: +23
  

8. (10) ATLANTA FALCONS

• Last week: Beat Cleveland, 20-10 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 4-1
• My predicted record: 5-0
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
  
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
• Plus/Minus: +23

8. (4) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Last week: Beat San Diego, 35-27 (-14)
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +6
• Points scored for me with losses: +31
• Points taken from me with wins: -14
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +23

12. (17) DENVER BRONCOS

• Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 31-17 (+13)
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 4-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +2
• Points scored for me with losses: +26
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +22

13. (18) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Last week: Lost to New York Jets, 29-20 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 1-3
• My predicted record: 2-2
• My record at predicting their record: 3-1
• Points scored for me with wins: +14
• Points scored for me with losses: +16
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
• Plus/Minus: +16
  

13. (18) NEW YORK JETS

• Last week: Beat Minnesota, 29-20 (+9)
  
• Actual Record: 4-1
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +18
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +3
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: +16

15. (14) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 20-10 (+4)
  
• Actual Record: 1-4
• My predicted record: 3-2
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
• Points scored for me with losses: +19
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
• Plus/Minus: +15

16. (20) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Last week: Beat Kansas City, 19-9 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 5-0
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +32
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
• Points taken from me with losses: -18
  
• Plus/Minus: +14

17. (15) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 27-24 (+3)
  
• Actual Record: 0-5
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +27
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -14
  
• Plus/Minus: +13
  

17. (13) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Last week: Beat Buffalo, 36-26 (-2)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +1
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +26
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -14
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +13
  

19. (12) NEW YORK GIANTS

• Last week: Beat Houston, 34-10 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 2-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +12
• Points scored for me with losses: +10
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -3
• Plus/Minus: +10
  

20. (11) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Last week: Lost to Tampa Bay, 24-21 (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 2-3
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +10
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +12
• Points taken from me with wins: -4
• Points taken from me with losses: -12
• Plus/Minus: +6
  

21. (25) CHICAGO BEARS

• Last week: Beat Carolina, 23-6 (+7)
  
• Actual Record: 4-1
• My predicted record: 3-2
• My record at predicting their record: 2-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +21
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -15
• Points taken from me with losses: -3
  
• Plus/Minus: +3

22. (22) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Last week: Lost to Detroit, 44-6 (+1)
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 0-5
• My record at predicting their record: 3-2
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +20
• Points taken from me with wins: -18
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: +2

23. (21) HOUSTON TEXANS

• Last week: Lost to New York Giants, 34-10 (-6)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 4-1
• My record at predicting their record: 2-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +13
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -6
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -11
  
• Plus/Minus: -4
  

24. (26) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 2-2
• My predicted record: 2-2
• My record at predicting their record: 2-2
• Points scored for me with wins: +9
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -14
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -2
  
• Plus/Minus: -5
  

25. (28) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 3-1
• My predicted record: 2-2
• My record at predicting their record: 1-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +7
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -9
• Points taken from me with losses: -4
  
• Plus/Minus: -6

26. (24) TENNESSEE TITANS

• Last week: Beat Dallas, 34-27 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 3-2
• My record at predicting their record: 1-4
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -11
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: -9

27. (30) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 19-9 (+10)
  
• Actual Record: 3-1
• My predicted record: 0-4
• My record at predicting their record: 1-3
  
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +10
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -23
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
  
• Plus/Minus: -13

28. (23) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Last week: Lost to Oakland, 35-27 (-14)
  
• Actual Record: 2-3
• My predicted record: 5-0
• My record at predicting their record: 2-3
• Points scored for me with wins: +25
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
  
• Points taken from me with wins: 0
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -39
• Plus/Minus: -14
  

29. (26) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 24-21 (-12)
  
• Actual Record: 3-1
• My predicted record: 0-4
• My record at predicting their record: 1-3
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +7
• Points taken from me with wins: -24
  
• Points taken from me with losses: 0
• Plus/Minus: -17
  

29. (29) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Last week: BYE
  
• Actual Record: 2-2
• My predicted record: 1-3
• My record at predicting their record: 1-3
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +2
• Points taken from me with wins: -17
• Points taken from me with losses: -5
  
• Plus/Minus: -20

31. (31) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• Last week: Beat Green Bay, 16-13 [OT] (-5)
  
• Actual Record: 3-2
• My predicted record: 1-4
• My record at predicting their record: 1-4
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: +5
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -22
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -13
• Plus/Minus: -30

32. (32) DALLAS COWBOYS

• Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 34-27 (-8)
  
• Actual Record: 1-3
• My predicted record: 3-1
• My record at predicting their record: 0-4
• Points scored for me with wins: 0
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -5
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -29
• Plus/Minus: -34

Woo hoo! The good news about last week's results is that I finally broke through to the win column for four-pointers. I've got winning records in 10 out of the 16 spots, but there's obviously still six places on the confidence sheet where I've been wrong more often than right:

16-point games: 2-1
15-point games: 3-0
14-point games: 3-2
13-point games: 4-1
12-point games: 3-2
11-point games: 3-2
10-point games: 4-1
9-point games: 4-1
8-point games: 2-3
7-point games: 3-2
6-point games: 1-4
5-point games: 2-3
4-point games: 1-4
3-point games: 2-3
2-point games: 2-3
1-point games: 4-1