Week Four Picks: Keeping with the fashion intangible

Seeing as how well things worked out for me with last week's picks, I'm trying to incorporate a lot of that logic into my predictions for Week Four. And there's no shortage of games for me this week where I can be oh-so-tempted to pick upsets.

Of course, I have no special jersey belief to center this week's post around, so instead it seems like a good week to once again refer to this Cleveland Browns sweatshirt that always pops up every year since that one memorable weekend I overpaid for the item.

And that said, I should point out that I'll of course be at work when the Battle of Ohio is occurring—and then presumably watching the Bears play later that evening. So will I really be busting out this piece of personal nostalgia this weekend?

I'll make my pledge here that indeed I will wear this fine piece of NFL apparel out to wherever it is I watch Sunday evening's contest if—and only if—the Browns emerge victorious over their rival Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. I know, I know ... that's far from being as committed as I sounded last week to my belief about the Dolphins, but I didn't say anything about wearing that Ricky Williams jersey to support that team either.

Of course, the Fins lost last weekend too—but the important part was that I won the PoolHost confidence pool, so let's keep our priorities straight here.

As you can see, Brian Burke's probabilities have finally returned to the New York Times' Fifth Down blog, which gives us a fifth hypothetical confidence pool sheet to add to this week's contests:

PFW Spread	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	Brian Burke	My Numbers
14  (13 ½)	13.5 (98%)	14 (33-16)	14  (.82)	14 (57)
13  (13)	13.5 (98%)	13 (27-17)	13 (.72)	13 (49)
12 (9)	12 (97%)	12 (29-19)	12 (.69)	12 (43)
11  (7 ½)	11 (94%)	11 (27-18)	11 (.67)	11 (41)
10  (7)	9  (92%)	10 (26-18)	10 (.65)	10 (35)
8.5  (6 ½)	9 (92%)	9 (25-16)	9 (.64)	9 (30)
8.5  (6 ½)	9 (92%)	8 (26-18)	8 (.61)	8 (26)
7 (4 ½)	7 (89%)	7 (22-15)	7  (.63)	7 (23)
5.5  (3 ½)	6 (84%)	6 (25-19)	6 (.61)	6  (23)
5.5 (3 ½)	5 (80%)	5 (21-18)	5 (.60)	5 (22)
4  (3)	4  (72%)	4 (19-17)	3.5 (.57)	4  (22)
2.5 (1)	3  (66%)	3  (24-22)	3.5 (.57)	3 (21)
2.5  (1)	2 (58%)	2 (19-18)	2 (.56)	2 (3)
1  (E)	1 (50%)	1 (24-23)	1 (.54)	1 (2)
64 points (7-7)	69 points (7-7)	65 points (8-6)	66.5 points (7-7)	57 points (6-8)

I should note that the single point on Baltimore is not actually the pick of the Yahoo users—which is a 50-50 pick 'em at the moment, and was actually leaning Pittsburgh earlier in the week—so I've opted to go with the consensus of their experts instead. Also, Wunderdog has changed their order at least three times this week, so the order I have it in is what they last had it at noon on the Saturday I'm publishing it. If they fuck with it again, well, that's kinda-sorta some bullshit.

UPDATE: According to the Yahoo confidence pool I'm in, 52 percent of the users there (probably just in the Pro Football Pick'em game since there's other differences in percentages, but still ...) have Pittsburgh, so I've changed the pick based on that.

Also, I had a number of games I'm tempted to pick upsets in—and would like to elaborate more on. But seeing as how not commenting on last weekend surely played a part in my victory, I'd be foolish not to follow that same philosophy. Accompanying (and somewhat useless—although certainly no worse than Pete Prisco) commentary will return when I lose.

Also, I'm thinking it's smarter to play it safe until I've actually taken the lead—so I've got nobody else to blame but myself if indeed the Redskins stun the Eagles, the Texans get eaten alive in the Black Hole, or even the Rams continue their upward mobility by surpassing last year's win total (the subject line that week I pick them for the very first time here on BMC will surely have something along the lines of "Hell's finally frozen over"). Anyway, here's how my own sheet's going to look this week:

14 points

Green Bay Packers (2-1) over Detroit Lions (0-3)

+17/0 : +57/57/0 : 0/+40

13 points

New Orleans Saints (2-1) over Carolina Panthers (0-3)

+20/+1 : +42/49/-7 : -8/+22

12 points

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) over Denver Broncos (1-1)

+4/0 : +5/3/+2 : +2/+1

11 points
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) over San Francisco 49ers (0-3)
+8/0 : +21/35/-14 : -14/+13


10 points
San Diego Chargers (1-2) over Arizona Cardinals (2-1)

-10/0 : -1/22/+21 : +21/+9

9 points
New York Jets (2-1) over Buffalo Bills (0-3)

0/-2 : +41/43/-2 : 0/+41

8 points
Houston Texans (2-1) over Oakland Raiders (1-2)
0/-6 : +23/23/0 : +6/+23


7 points
Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) over Washington Redskins (1-2)

+23/+5 : +18/26/-8 : -13/-5

6 points
Tennessee Titans (2-1) over Denver Broncos (1-2)
+8/-3 : +21/22/-1 : +2/+13

5 points

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) over St. Louis Rams (1-2)

0/-15 : +6/21/-15 : 0/+6

4 points

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) over Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

+7/-9 : +7/2/+5 : +14/0

3 points
Chicago Bears (3-0) over New York Giants (1-2)

+14/-15 : +24/30/-6 : +9/+10

2 points 

New England Patriots (2-1) over Miami Dolphins (2-1)

+24/0 : +10/3/+7 : +7/-14

1 point

Cleveland Browns (0-3) over Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

-5/+15 : +2/23/+25 : +10/+7